Det amerikanske valg rummer så store usikkerheder, så markedet bliver volatilt. UBS nedvurderer markedet. Men det skyldes også frygt for, at demokraterne vinder, da det kan føre til større beskatning af erhvervslivet og stor indkomstfordeling.
Uddrag fra UBS:
This month’s edition takes a closer look at how investors are likely to react to the uncertain political environment in the run-up to the November 3rd 2020 US presidential election.
For investors carefully considering the 2020 geopolitical calendar and its potential risks, one event looms larger than most. With the major policies of the leading Democrat presidential candidates advocating a stark shift towards a progressive and redistributive agenda, the Democratic nomination process and the subsequent US presidential election on November 3rd have the potential to materially impact markets.
The ongoing impeachment proceedings against President Trump ensure that the starting point to this election year will remain partisan and tense. But we don’t see the impeachment as a major market event. Given President Trump’s continued popularity among Republican voters, among other things, Republicans in the Senate are extremely unlikely to indict the president. Of much greater significance to markets than impeachment is the Democrat candidate for president, and the wider market’s interpretation of the likelihood that the nominee can first unseat President Trump and then progress their legislative agenda.
From a starting field of 25, 15 candidates remain in the Democrat presidential race at the time of writing. Of those 15, we see four as the most viable candidates: Former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has also thrown his hat into the ring. But in our view, Bloomberg’s late entry into the race, billionaire wealth and more centrist policies make him a longshot to attract a strong enough base among Democratic Primary voters. In a December 18 poll conducted by Politico.com, Bloomberg had strong name recognition, but was viewed as ‘Unfavorable’ by more voters than any of the other 14 remaining candidates.
Exhibit 1: Biden leads the national polls, but polling in the crucial first primaries is close among the four
We do not intend to detail the explicit policies of all four candidates, nor explore the complex potential candidate/ running mate permutations. But it is at least worth running through some of the market-relevant platforms to understand the evolution taking place in the Democratic Party. All the leading Democratic candidates for president are proposing policies that were once deemed too radical to garner mainstream political support in the US. While the candidates may, to different extents, frame their agenda as reforming capitalism rather than embracing socialism, there is little question that the overall policy bias in the Democratic party has moved to the political left.
The shift is reflected in proposals from all four leading candidates for rises in corporate and capital gains taxes, rises that would more than offset the tax cuts that came into force in 2017. Sweeping labor market reform and greater worker protections are also on the cards, as is greater regulation to curb the big tech companies. It is no coincidence that the most ticks in our policy summary table are found in Elizabeth Warren’s and Bernie Sanders’ columns. The senators have the most progressive policy agendas as they take aim at the perceived inequalities created by capitalism.
