”The centerpiece of our 2025 global economic outlook is a U.S. growth acceleration that leads the world economy, which we believe will grow more slowly. The Wall Street term is a “soft landing,” in which the U.S. economy regains momentum after a growth slowdown. To earn its name, the soft landing must feature catch-up spending so that lagging manufacturing and other segments catch up to services, which have been much stronger. But in that catch-up, and in likely new tariffs and tighter immigration, we expect a modest inflation uptick by year-end. Our outlook for investment returns looks solid. Equity markets seem to have embraced the soft-landing scenario since mid-2023, and the S&P 500 Index posted a 33% total return in the 12 months through December 2, 2024, but the Bloomberg Aggregate U.S. Bond Index appears set for another year of loss and still has not recovered from its 17% drop between July 2020 and October 2022. Investors seeking income have gravitated toward money market funds and short-term instruments, but we favor shifting those holdings into broadening equity-market opportunities and longer-term fixed income in 2025.”
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Morten W. Langer
