Wells Fargo ser positivt på aktiemarkederne, fordi økonomien efter bankens opfattelse klarer sig bedre end ventet i år og næste år, især i Europa, og det smitter af på de amerikanske aktier. Wells Fargo venter, at S&P500 indekset slutter dette år på 3580, mens det bliver højere ved slutningen af næste år, på 3850. Wells Fargo opstiller en liste over sine favorit-sektorer med Informations Teknologi helt i toppen.
Justified
In fact, our forward positive outlook has further improved in recent weeks and led us to hike our economic and earnings numbers as we look to year-end 2020 and, more importantly, year-end 2021.
As a result, our year-end target ranges for the S&P 500 Index as well as a number of other equity indices have also moved higher.
We have attempted to focus investors on the year-end 2021 period as COVID-19, Congressional stimulus prospects, and election-related uncertainties will likely continue to drive the day-to-day and week-to-week market action over the balance of this year.
Looking ahead, we are expecting the market to focus more on the underlying fundamentals as some of these issues are potentially resolved and we move into and through next year.
Specifically, the gross domestic product (GDP) contraction we projected to be nearly 6% this year now looks to be a more moderate 3.7%. Certainly not good but noticeably better than our previous expectations.
We also believe the U.S. economy will post better performance next year than initially expected and have raised our growth rate to 3.8%.
These adjustments have been a key factor in pushing our earnings projections for the S&P 500 Index up to $130 this year and $165 in 2021. If we are correct, next year’s earnings will be slightly ahead of the $163 posted last year.
In addition, our estimates for economic growth in the eurozone and the developed international markets as a whole have moved up. And with nearly 40% of revenues for the S&P 500 Index coming from outside the country, this is an important bit of positive news for large-cap earnings growth.
Given our improved economic and earnings outlook, we believe increased expectations for the S&P 500 Index for this year and next are justified.
The mid-point of our year-end 2020 target range is now 3580 with a 3850 mid-point for the end of 2021. We continue to rate the Information Technology sector as our most favorable. We also favor the Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Health Care sectors.
We believe investors should stay invested, and take advantage of pullback opportunities.
