Det begynder at bøje nedad for dansk økonomi

Robustheden i dansk økonomi er nu ved at krakelere efter et overraskende stærkt efterår, hvor europæisk økonomi ellers har ligget underdrejet. Fjerde kvartal sluttede ganske godt, viser BNP-tallene. Men de få nøgletal for starten af 2020 viser, at det nu begynder at bøje af.

Danmarks Statistiks data for industriens produktion viser f.eks. et klart fald. DS skriver: ”Det samlede produktionsindeks for industrien faldt i januar med 2,6 pct. særligt pga. af et fald i maskinindustrien. Set over perioden november 2019 – januar 2020 er den samlede industriproduktion faldet med 1,9 pct. i forhold til de foregående tre måneder.” Videre skriver DS: ”Industriens produktion og omsætning er første pejlemærke for udviklingen i dansk økonomi, som er baseret på indberetninger om virksomhedernes faktiske aktiviteter.”

I vores gennemgang af coronakrisens negative effekter, baseret på tyske data, fremgår det, at bl.a. maskinindustri allerede har betydelige problemer. Netop maskinindustri, som vægter hele 14 procent af den samlede industri, gik hele 21 procent tilbage, sæsonkorrigeret fra december til januar. Medicinalindustri, som også vægter tungt, gik knap 1 procent tilbage.

Med den eskalerende coronakrise er der udsigt til meget lav økonomisk vækst i år, og endda måske en recession, vurderer Danske Bank. Banken skriver i en analyse, at ”we expect the economic impact to be very significant in the short run. Public service excluding healthcare represents 20.1% of employment and 15.7% of GDP. The decline in measured production will be smaller, as some can work from home and for example teaching might be done remotely.”

Videre hedder det: “On the other hand, private production will be disrupted by workers staying home either to prevent contagion or to take care of children. There is set to be a large decline in GDP in Q1. It might not decline further in Q2 and hence a technical recession might not happen, but the setback will be so large that this is likely a recession in non-technical terms. For 2020 as a whole we expected 1.4% growth in our latest full forecast from 3 January. An estimate today might be something closer to 0.5%, with a clear risk that GDP will actually decline in 2020.”

I en vurdering skriver Nordea, at “It is difficult to assess the overall economic effect of these measures. Note, though, that all public-sector employees will keep their jobs and receive full salary during the 2-week period. The same does not apply to employees in the private sector and there is a risk of rising unemployment during the coming weeks. This will also affect demand in society at large. Given the serious situation worldwide, the risk of a global recession is rising. The massive stock market losses globally will hit consumer spending and investment activity very hard. The travel industry, tourism, hotels and restaurants will experience a severe crisis and the coming quarter’s catch-up effect will have to be very strong to stave off a recession in the first half of the year.”