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US data idiosyncratically weakening

Source: BofA

Recent evolution of global economic surprise indices shows US data idiosyncratically weakening.

Fund flows and the cutting cycle

Source: ICI

History shows mixed results when examining money market fund flow behavior during cutting cycles. The chart shows the rolling 12 month cumulative fund flow as a percentage of assets under management contrasted with the fed funds target rate

Gold and the cutting cycle

Source: Datastream

Fed cutting cycles can be very supportive for Gold if followed by weaker growth.

Commodities and the cutting cycle

Source: Datastream

Commodity performance around Fed cutting cycles is particularly sensitive to growth.

Yield curve and the cutting cycle

Source: Datastream

The US yield curve generally steepened around the start of Fed cutting cycles.

Equities and that cutting cycle

Source: Datastream

Equities tend to perform well after the Fed cutting cycle starts, unless growth

Here we go again with that FED pricing

Source: Haver

Markets are again pricing more Fed cuts in the next 12 months

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