Global recession truer i horisonten

De seneste mange kvartaler har USA og Europa skiftevis vist styrke og svaghed i økonomien, og det har været med til at holde den globale økonomi i et vist momentum. Den seneste måned har dog vist en parallel opbremsning i europæisk og amerikansk økonomi, som varsler mørke skyer forude. Svage amerikanske økonomiske nøgletal har på det seneste styrket USD og givet vigende tro på flere renteforhøjelser fra den amerikanske centralbank i år. Udviklingen i USA’s økonomi understøttes af Atlanta FEDs GDPnow indikator for væksten i Q1, som nu indikerer 0,6 % vækst, efter et relativt markant fald de seneste måneder. Fredagens data fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer i ISM viser, at der måske er en solid vending på vej. Delindikatoren for nye ordrer steg til hele 58 mod 51,5 i forrige måned. Aktiemarkedet reagererede dog stort set ikke på nøgletallet, som muligvis opfattes som en skævert. Markant stærkere vækst burde sende aktierne ned på grund af ny rentefrygt Selvom forbrugertilliden i Conference Boards måling steg, vurderer tænketanken, at ”consumer confidence increased in March, after declining in February,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions posted a moderate decline, while expectations regarding the short-term turned more favorable as last month’s turmoil in the financial markets appears to have abated. On balance, consumers do not foresee the economy gaining any significant momentum in the near-term, nor do they see it worsening.”

For Europa synes den økonomiske vækst også at nærme sig nulpunktet, efter en stribe skuffende økonomiske nøgletal den seneste måned, blandt andet tyske IFO. Fredagens PMI data fra Markit bekræfter den magre udvikling, idet PMI scoren ligger lige over neutrale 50. Markits vurdering lyder sådan: “Although the PMI ticked higher, March still saw the second-weakest improvement in manufacturing conditions seen for just over a year. The data suggest manufacturing grew by only around 0.2% in the first quarter, acting as a drag on the wider economy.” “Policymakers will also be worried by the further intensification of deflationary pressures in manufacturing supply chains, with prices charged at the factory gate falling at the steepest rate since late-2009. Discounting was widespread as firms competed on price amid weak demand.” Senest PMI data fra Markit viser faktisk det mest positive billede af udviklingen i Kina, hvor PMI scoren gik solidt frem, men stadig ligger under den neutrale 50-værdi. Markit skriver : “March survey data pointed to only a fractional deterioration in operating conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers. A renewed expansion in total new order books led to the first increase in output for a year. However, firms continued to cut their staff numbers, with the rate of job shedding easing only slightly from February’s seven-year record. Companies also maintained relatively cautious stock policies, with renewed inflationary pressures as both input costs and prices charged rose for the first time since July 2014, albeit at modest rates.”

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Morten W. Langer