Tvivl om det europæiske opsving

Mens de fleste ledende økonomiske indikatorer de seneste måneder har understøttet billedet af et spirende opsving i Europa, tyder mere og mere på, at det nærmest fiser ud, før det er kommet i gang.

De seneste hårde makroøkonomiske data for væksten i EU siger 0,4 procent i tredje kvartal, og altså det samme som i andet kvartal 2016, og lavere end i første kvartal 2016. Indtil videre kan man godt konkludere, at den spirende optimisme har været ubegrundet, og at de ledende indikatorer har vist et for positivt billede af økonomien.

Seneste tal fra de tyske indkøbschefer i IFO viser da også et tilbagefald i den fremadrettede forventningsindikator: ”Confidence in the German economy continues to be good. The Ifo Business Climate Index remained unchanged at 110.4 points (seasonal adjustment correction) in November. The firms were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but with regard to the coming months they are somewhat less optimistic (…) The firms gave only slightly less favourable assessments of the current situation. They are also no longer quite so optimistic regarding the coming six months. This is mainly due to less dynamic export prospects. An increased number of companies intend to raise prices in the near future.”

Heller ikke OECD’s historisk meget pålidelige ledende indikator viser nogen nævneværdig bevægelse for Europa og hele OECD. Men der er dog nogle positive øer: ”Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to growth momentum picking up in several advanced economies and strengthening in major emerging economies. Signs of growth gaining momentum have emerged in the CLIs for the United States, Canada, Germany and France. In the OECD area as a whole, Japan, and the euro area as a whole, the CLIs point to stable growth momentum. In Italy, the CLI show signs of easing growth.”

Mens de ledende indikatorer de seneste måneder har vist fremgang for kinesisk økonomi, ser der nu ud til at være en opbremsning, fremgår det af PMI : ”Chinese manufacturing production continued to expand at a robust pace in November, despite the rate of growth easing since October’s fiveand-a-half year peak. At the same time, companies reported a softer expansion of total new orders, while new export work was broadly stable after a slight fall in October. Meanwhile, cost-cutting initiatives underpinned a further fall in staff numbers, though the rate of job shedding was the slowest seen in a year and-a-half. November also saw a sharp pick up in inflationary pressures, with both input costs and prices charged rising at the fastest rates since early-2011. At 50.9 in November, the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – fell from a 27-month high of 51.2 in October.”

Morten W. Langer

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