Nedturen i den globale økonomi bremser op

I både Kina og Europa har der på det seneste været indikationer på en positiv vending i den månedlange opbremsning i den økonomiske vækst. USA synes fortsat at vakle mellem stabilitet og yderligere fald i væksten.

I Økonomisk Ugebrevs Konjunkturbarometer for den Globale Økonomi er der i denne opdatering positiv fremgang i fire signaler og tilbagegang i ét signal. Den samlede score ligger fortsat omkring nul, i det samlede udfaldsrum mellem plus to og minus to. En neutral score signalerer normalt en lille positiv vækst i den globale økonomi.

Overordnet understøtter JP Morgans PMI erhvervstillid for det globale erhvervsliv , at der i marts har været en positiv vending i erhvervstilliden: ”The acceleration was mainly centred on the service sector, where output growth hit a fourmonth high. Manufacturing production rose only slightly and to the weakest extent since June 2016. Output rose in four out of the six sub-industries covered by the survey, with contractions registered at intermediate and investment goods manufacturers. The strongest rate of expansion was seen in the financial services category, followed closely by the business services sector,” hedder det i en kommentar.

OECD’s ledende indikator , som senere er opdateret for februar, viser fortsat opbremsning i Eurozonen, herunder i både Tyskland, Italien og England. Også for USA viser OECD’s indikator tilbagegang.

Den tyske IFO måling af erhvervstilliden viser en klar vending i marts for servicesektoren og for handel, mens nedturen fortsætter i fremstillingsindustrien. I en kommentar fra IFO hedder det, at ”In manufacturing the business climate weakened once again. The manufacturers assessed their current business somewhat less positively. The outlook also worsened. The expectations component fell to its lowest value since November 2012. With declining demand, businesses hardly expect any more increases in production. In the services the index rose noticeably, mainly as a result of clearly more optimistic expectations.”

Billedet er fuldstændig det samme for hele eurozonen, viser PMI-målingen fra Markit . For kinesisk erhvervsliv er der også positive signaler. I en kommentar til den seneste måling af erhvervstilliden hedder det: “The output subindex continued to rise in expansionary territory. The employment subindex surged to a high not seen since January 2013. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas for February was the highest since early 2017, causing concerns about the job market. The situation improved significantly in March, indicating easing pressure on employment.”