I en ny artikel skriver Boston Consulting Group, at vigtige interessenter mener, at oliepriserne vil forblive høje på kort sigt. De mener også, at virksomheder skal planlægge omstillingen til renere energi. De har for nyligt gennemført en spørgeskemaundersøgelse, der afspejler en række geografiske markeder, investeringstile og fokusområder.
Hertil skriver de:
Despite the global energy crisis, energy company stocks are surging—up 50% year to date through late October 2021—on the back of high commodity prices. Our survey results show that investors expect prices to remain robust. Approximately 70% of respondents expect oil prices to remain above $60 per barrel through 2024. That is significantly higher than reported in last year’s survey, in which the majority of investors projected an oil price between $40 and $60 per barrel.
Notably, investors are just as optimistic about natural gas; 85% agree that it will play a critical role as a bridge fuel between traditional hydrocarbons and renewable energy sources to help the world decarbonize, and 70% want O&G companies to pursue growth in natural gas. For management teams seeking some clarity about how natural gas fits into their portfolios, these results are a clear signal of growing support for continued investment as part of longer-term capital allocation strategies.
The optimism regarding commodity prices translates into total shareholder return (TSR). Roughly 60% of investors expect a continued recovery in TSR over the next two years. Most respondents (68%) believe that to meet that expectation, O&G companies need to maintain strong capital discipline. They also need to focus on profitability over the next three to five years (according to 60% of investors).
And, critically, these firms need to maintain or increase their payouts to investors, primarily through dividends but also through buybacks. Regardless of whether oil and gas prices are high or low, maintaining dividends and growing the top line remain central elements of Big Oil’s value proposition for shareholders. In our findings, more than 80% of investors said that it was “somewhat” or “extremely important” for companies to maintain or grow their investor payouts.
CREATING VALUE IN A LOW-CARBON FUTURE
If short-term sentiment is positive, the longer-term feeling among investors is decidedly mixed because of increased attention on environmental sustainability. Nearly two-thirds of investors say that peak oil demand will occur by 2030—a slight increase from last year’s estimates. Only 30% think that O&G stocks will take on an increasing role in their portfolios in the next decade, and nearly 60% feel pressure from their clients to divest their fossil-fuel investments.
Læs hele artiklen her:
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/how-investors-see-future-of-oil-gas
