ABNamro: Sådan ses udviklingen på det europæiske marked for CO2-kvoter: ”The EUA price has been witnessing a declining trend since the autumn of 2023, while it has also shown a high correlation with European gas prices more generally. The trends have continued this year, with the EUA price reaching a 15-month low in mid-January. Mild weather and slow economic activity reduced demand for ETS allowances from the power and industrial sectors. We expect the downward trend in EUA prices to continue in the near term on the weakness in the economy. January 2024 marks the extension of the European Emission Trading System to cover emissions from the shipping sector. The EUA price has been experiencing a declining trend since the autumn of 2023, reaching a twelve-month low of 63.89 EUR/tCO2 mid-January. The decline was driven by a number of factors. First of all, the decrease in European gas prices. Lower gas prices trigger a switch from coal to gas for power generation, and since gas has a relatively lower emission intensity, demand for EUAs is lower for the same power generated. The correlation between gas and EUA price has been strong as seen in the chart below.
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