Bloomberg Intelligence har forudsagt, at ESG-aktiver (US) er på vej til at overstige $ 53 mia. i løbet af de næste fire år som et resultat af den “perfekte storm” skabt af Covid-19-pandemien og det “grønne opsving” i USA.
Organisationens Global ESG 2021 Outlook, som mediet ESG Clarity har gennemgået, forudsiger, at ESG-aktiver kunne nå en tredjedel af de forventede $ 140,5 mia. dollar, der forventes at blive investeret i aktiver inden 2025, med 2021 klar til at blive et afgørende år med “ESG-reframing-markeder.”
ESG Clarity skriver:
The momentum seen in 2020 – with Bloomberg recording a threefold increase in the number of companies setting net-zero targets and more than 330 new ESG funds launched by the third quarter – will continue to accelerate into this year, writes Bloomberg Intelligence head of ESG and thematic investing EMEA Adeline Diab, leading to increasing regulatory and shareholder oversight.
“More than $3trn in fiscal stimuli globally will be dedicated to financing a green recovery to spur consumer spending, corporate funding, and in turn, employment. ESG assets may top $53trn by 2025 as ETFs and debt expand, though underperformance may persist for the US next year,” the note said.
“Global ESG assets are on track to exceed $53trn by 2025, representing more than a third of the $140.5trn in projected total assets under management. A perfect storm created by the pandemic and the green recovery in the US, EU and China will likely reveal how ESG can help assess a new set of financial risks and harness capital markets.”
The figures are assuming just half the pace of the 15% growth seen over the previous five years, so ESG Assets under management could climb even further, Diab adds. Assets jumped from $22.8trn in 2016 to $20.6trn in 2018 and stood at $37.8trn by the end of 2020.
From a regional perspective, European ESG assets has seen a lot of the growth over the past decade and account for half of global ESG assets. However, the note said the US had the strongest expansion in 2020 and could take over Europe by 2022.
Bloomberg also predicted the “next wave of growth” will come from Asia, particularly Japan.
Looking at the credit markets, Bloomberg’s Diab said the $2.2trn debt market could reach $11trn by 2025, again assuming it expands at half the pace of the past five years.
Green, social and sustainability bonds were poised to surpass $2trn in cumulative volume by the end of 2020, according to the latest Bloomberg figures, a milestone reached with the year’s meteoric rise of social bonds.
“Organic growth in ESG debt is unlikely to slow – driven by companies, development projects and central banks – with pandemic and green-recovery efforts helping to scale up the market in the short term. EU pledges of €100bn to support employment and €225bn to fund a post-pandemic recovery, US President Joe Biden’s $2trn energy strategy and the challenge of China’s 2023 green-debt maturities all signal ample room for new issuance.”
Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence also predicted “accelerated growth across asset classes and themes” in terms of product launches. The note also highlights Morningstar data that showed in just the first three quarters of 2020, 330 new ESG products were brought to market – an “unprecedented level of product development”, commented Diab.
While equities dominates product offerings, credit represents 20% of new ESG funds, said the Bloomberg Intelligence research, and more thematic products are emerging.
“Climate remains king, accounting for about 25% of ESG funds launched in 2020,” it said.