I deres netop udkomne rapport World Energy Outlook undersøger International Energy Agency (IEA) effekterne af den nuværende energikrise på blandt andet forsyningskæder, energisikkerhed, forbrugere og den grønne omstilling. Hertil anvender rapporten scenarie-analyser (Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)) på baggrund af eksisterende klima- og energipolitik til at forudse fremtidens klima- og energiomstilling.
Energikrisen har resulteret i stigende efterspørgsel på kul og olie som alternativ til gas, men rapporten finder, at dette hovedsageligt skyldes skift til allerede eksisterende energiformer som eksempelvis oliefyr, frem for nye fossile investeringer. Dog noterer IEA også, at energikrisens har ført til stigning i nye investeringer i grøn energi.
Ifølge rapporten var 2021 året med den største stigning i energirelateret CO2-udledninger nogensinde: ”Energy-related CO2 emissions rebounded to 36.6 Gt in 2021, the largest ever annual rise in emissions. In the STEPS, they reach a plateau around 37 Gt before falling slowly to 32 Gt in 2050, a trajectory that would lead to a 2.5 °C rise in global average temperatures by 2100. This is around 1 °C lower than implied by the baseline trajectory prior to the Paris Agreement, indicating the progress that has been made since then. But much more needs to be done.”
Rapporten viser også, at energikrisen skaber sociale udfordringer: ”Price and economic pressures mean that the number of people without access to modern energy is rising for the first time in a decade. Around 75 million people who recently gained access to electricity are likely to lose the ability to pay for it, and 100 million people may revert to the use of traditional biomass for cooking.”
Ifølge rapporten, vil energikrisen kræve mere handling: ”The world has not been investing enough in energy in recent years, a fact that left the energy system much more vulnerable to the sort of shocks seen in 2022. A smooth and secure energy transition will require a major uptick in clean energy investment flows. Getting on track for the NZE Scenario will require a tripling in spending on clean energy and infrastructure to 2030, alongside a shift towards much higher investment in emerging market and developing economies.”
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