Den ambitiøse klimaafstemning i Europa-Parlamentet sendte ikke CO2-kvotepriserne højere op som ellers flere analytikere havde forventet. Den foreløbig afstemning, der fandt sted tirsdag aften, viste, at flertallet støtter et højere emissionsreduktionsmål på 60%. Det kom som en positiv overraskelse, da mange forventede et 55% mål.
Belektron carbon newsletter skriver:
“This target aims to reduce carbon emissions by 60% compared to 1990 levels and is a great improvement to the previous 40% target that was set back in 2014. Market initially moved more than 1 EUR higher on the announcement in a couple of minutes but the move was completely undone until the end of trading day on Wednesday.
Prices keep changing direction violently in intraday moves and any strong intraday trends have been completely reversed in the next day for the last two weeks. It appears that we will need a very cold winter forecast to manage pushing EUA prices above 30 EUR/EUA until the end of the year.
Market remains well supported at the lower part of the trading range. October will see the highest monthly volume offered on auctions this year with total number of allowances being sold reaching almost 88 million EUA. So far, the market has absorbed the volumes well, thus it appears that it will continue to trade in the range between 26 and 28 EUR/EUA in the short term.
På længere sigt vurderer ABN AMBRO at kvote prisen skal op:
- Ambitious EU climate plans to speed up carbon reduction to a 55% drop compared to 1990
- Revision of the EU ETS will lead to a faster reduction of the available number of emission rights
- Our base case scenario implies a moderate rise of EU ETS prices