Virksomheders kreditprofiler er langt mere sårbare over for pludselige ændringer i ESG-relaterede politikker og regulering end for den faktiske fysiske virkninger af klimaændringer, siger Fitch Ratings.
Virksomhedsenheder kan afbøde fysiske risici ved tilstrækkelige investeringer eller flytning af produktiv kapacitet. Imidlertid kan lovgivningsmæssigt pres helt kunne fjerne sektorer, der er udsat for politisk styrede ændringer.
Der er betydelige forskelle mellem sektor og undersektor sårbarheder ikke kun over tid, men også mellem lande og regioner. Dette er den væsentligste pointe i en ny Fitch-rapport, der vurderer sårbarheden hvert femte år fra 2025-2050 af de globale forsyningssektorer til ESG-faktorer under et to-graderscenarie.
Fitch Ratings skriver:
Carbon-intensive sub-sectors are much more vulnerable to evolving policies and regulations than to the physical risks of climate change. Our analysis pinpoints coal-fired energy as the most exposed form of electricity generation, with vulnerability already very high in many regions but rising more slowly in Asia, where decarbonisation policy goals have a lower priority than economic growth and electrification targets. Growing environmental consciousness and the resulting societal and regulatory pressures pose an existential threat to coal-fired electricity generation.
The trajectory and pace of this pressure could only be mitigated by an unforeseen technological breakthrough, or a collapse of, or reversal in, climate policies. The long-term vulnerabilities of corporate entities related to natural gas sub-sectors are more nuanced. We consider natural gas generation vulnerable to policy-driven phaseouts as the requirement for baseload is reduced by technological developments, such as greater electricity storage capacity. Developed markets with mature demand profiles are likely to introduce phase-outs first, resulting in gas generation reaching a moderate to high level of vulnerability in Europe and North America by 2040, while Asia and Latin America are likely to follow this trajectory but with a 10-year lag.
