Vend blikket tilbage et par måneder tilbage. Det er september 2019. Verdensbanken og Verdenssundhedsorganisationen har udarbejdet en ny rapport om pandemisk beredskab. Her skriver de, at ” “Få naturfare truer mere tab af liv, økonomisk forstyrrelse og social forstyrrelse end sygdomsudbrud i stor skala,” hedder det i rapporten. Men verden investerer i fremadrettet planlægning “trods bevis, der antyder, at mere opmærksomhed på beredskab ville være omkostningseffektiv.”
Sådan indleder Bloomberg en artikel af Akshat Rathi, der stiller skarpt på, at den manglende forberedelse af COVID-19 krisen ligner det vi også ser i forhold til klimakrisen.
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Between 1997 and 2009 zoonotic outbreaks—pathogens crossing over from animals to humans—that did not become pandemics cost the world economy $6.7 billion each year. Pandemics cost a lot more. A new influenza-type outbreak on the scale of the 1918 pandemic could cost as much as $3 trillion, or about 5% of global economic output, the joint World Bank-WHO panel projected.
The cost of preparing against the threat would be a mere $3.4 billion each year. In other words, the report concluded, every $1 spent on preparation would yield at least $2 in economic savings—and potentially a lot more if it curbs a pandemic. Much of the money will be spent strengthening health infrastructure in poor countries, which could help alleviate poverty because infectious diseases disproportionately affect the poor. All that is, of course, secondary to avoiding the grief of losing countless lives.
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Covid-19 and climate change are different types of crises. The pandemic will be over within years and a single technological solution (vaccines) can bring it to a halt sooner. Climate change will cause devastation for decades to come, even if we start cutting emissions, and it cannot be solved with technology alone.
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“Preparedness is a choice,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, who worked on a pandemic playbook for the US government under former President Barack Obama. “The decision not to prepare in the face of an obvious threat is no excuse when you find that threat is overwhelming later on.”
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