Limited impact on polls as expected. Some of the most recent polls already fully capture post-flood views. As expected, there is no big shift in voter preferences. As the flood has again given rise to the awareness of extreme weather linked to climate change, it might have benefitted the Greens. But this does not seem to be the case (see Figure 3). In a recent survey (Spiegel, June 21), only one-third of voters state that climate change has become more decisive for their voting intentions.
Thus, it is unlikely that the events will massively mobilize new green voters. Instead, they will likely confirm voters’ previous choices. In addition, given the various climaterelated legal packages at both the domestic and EU levels, the Greens’ focus on climate no longer substantially differentiates them from other major parties. Still, polarization between those who think this is “only” weather and those who think climate change increases the likelihood of such events in Germany might increase