I en ny artikel har Schroders forsøgt at afgøre, hvad det nylige COP26-møde kommer til at betyde for investorer, der lægger deres penge i klimaforandringerne. I et forsøg på at løfte optimismen efter et ellers vemodigt COP26-møde lister Schroders aftaler op, der skal give anledning til håb:
- India made a first commitment to net zero, albeit in 2070
- Coal and fossil fuels were directly referenced in a COP agreement for the first time, as countries agreed to phase down unabated coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
- Over 100 countries signed the US and EU-led pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels
- More than 100 countries, covering over 85% of the world’s forests, made the commitment to halt deforestation by 2030
- Guidelines for a global carbon market were approved; a development that has been pending since COP21 in Paris. The rules bring standardisation and clarity.
Samtidig lægger de ikke skjul på, hvad de mener vil være de største konsekvenser ved COP26. Hertil skriver de:
The Glasgow COP was billed as a last chance to limit global warming to 1.5C. That’s still a possibility but there is a danger people may begin to conclude that 1.5C is off the table. This could in itself damage momentum. Will companies commit to the tough changes needed for them to be on track for 1.5C (involving 45% emissions cuts by 2030) if governments won’t commit to it?
A related potential consequence could be growing voter discontent over the lack of political leadership.
We also see a risk that countries who are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change might conclude they are better off conserving their resources for adaptation, rather than mitigation, if the big economies are not doing enough.
The carbon market plan will take time to implement but we’re interested to see how it is enacted and how powerful the market signals are. It is important that it doesn’t simply legitimise the use of offsets for emissions as these have to be genuinely abated.
Overall, we think COP26 has moved things on slightly but is in no way a big step forward. As such, it’s unlikely to prove meaningful for financial markets in the short term.
The well-established shifts to renewable energy and electric vehicles will carry on at a fast pace, but COP didn’t bring anything game-changing to accelerate the shift in these markets, or to kick-start action in the harder to abate sectors.
That means it’s back to looking at the policy details, of which there are plenty. In the next few months we will see if the US can pass its climate bill. If they do then this would be the biggest near-term catalyst for climate change investing.
Læser mere, om hvilken indflydelse COP26 vil have på investorer, her:
