Resume af teksten:
Den globale fremstillings-PMI faldt til 51,3 i marts fra 51,8 i februar. Nedgangen skyldes i høj grad eskaleringen af konflikten mellem USA/Israel og Iran, som begyndte den 28. februar. Emerging markets oplevede det største fald, hvor Kina og Indiens produktions-PMI blev påvirket af konfliktrelaterede problemer, især olieimport. Trods en stigning i PMI for udviklede markeder, påvirkes tallene af længere leveringstider, som signalerer forsyningsflaskehalse og stigende inflationspres. Den globale leveringtids-subindeks faldt til et lavpunkt efter pandemien. Yderligere forstyrrelser kan opstå, hvis konflikten i Mellemøsten eskalerer igen. Inputpriskomponenten steg skarpt i marts, hvilket bidrager til de stigende inflationspres globalt.
Fra ABN-Amro:
Global manufacturing PMI comes down again in March on escalation of Iran conflict. Relatively strong readings for developed economies flattered by rising delivery times. These are indicative for a broad re-emergence of supply bottlenecks, and rising inflationary pressures.
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
After having risen to a 44-month high of 51.8 in February, the global manufacturing PMI dropped back to 51.3 in March. This seems to a large extent related to the escalation of the conflict between US/Israel and Iran, which started on 28 February. The deterioration in March was led by emerging markets (EM), with the EM aggregate falling back to 50.7 (February: 52.0). This was partly driven by China’s manufacturing PMI from RatingDog (included in the global index), which fell back to 50.8 following a one-month surge to 52.1 in February. This largely reflects a weakening of export prospects due to the Iran conflict, with China’s export subindex dropping sharply again following a spike in February. The manufacturing PMI for India dropped even sharper, reflecting the country’s large dependence on oil imports coming from the Middle East. The agreed ceasefire between US/Israel and Iran could mean that the impact from the conflict ultimately proves temporary, although the agreement still looks fragile and it is too early for strong conclusions on this point yet (also see our report, Iran ceasefire: Is this a turning point?, published on 8 March ).
At first glance, developed markets (DM) manufacturing PMIs exhibited ongoing strength in March, with the aggregate DM index picking up further to 52.0, the highest reading since June 2022. Particularly striking were the strong outcomes for the eurozone (up by 0.8 points to 51.6) and Germany (up by 1.3 points to 52.2). However, for many DMs – and particularly for European countries – these headline manufacturing PMIs are flattered by a remarkable drop in the delivery times subindex, which signals a lengthening of delivery times. The global delivery times subindex fell by 2.1 points to a post-pandemic low of 46.5, with the DM aggregate falling to 44.0 (February: 46.4) and the EM aggregate to 48.4 (February: 50.3). Amongst DMs, the delivery times subindex is now particularly low for European countries: UK (38.9), France (39.3), Germany (39.6), the Netherlands (40.5), eurozone average (40.9), although the troughs reached during the pandemic are not in sight yet. If we correct for these lengthy delivery times, the picture for instance in the eurozone is a less impressive one (see chart): the eurozone manufacturing PMI would have fallen closer to the neutral 50 mark in March, instead of rising to a 45-month high of 51.6.
The lengthening of delivery times is just one of the indications of supply disturbances stemming from the Iran conflict. These are so far obviously concentrated in energy-related areas. Still, additional bottlenecks could arise should the ceasefire not hold and/or the conflict re-escalate. Think for instance of the potential closure of the Bab-Al-Mandez Strait – connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden – by the Iran-affiliated Houthis: this would disrupt global shipping much more broadly than just energy flows. Not surprisingly, our global supply bottlenecks index has risen back to ‘dominant supply bottlenecks/excess demand’ territory. This is not only driven by the lengthier delivery times, but also by the index capturing global supply and demand conditions (the ratio between the EM output index and the DM domestic and export orders index).
In line with this re-emergence of bottlenecks on the global supply side, and the shift back towards “global excess demand”, we also see a sharp rise of the cost-push price subindices included in the global manufacturing PMI. The input price component jumped by almost five points to 62.2 driven by higher commodity prices, the highest reading since October 2022 (although remaining below the heights seen during the pandemic). The output price component also increased, but less spectacularly, reaching a 40-month high of 55.1 in March. All in all, the developments in global manufacturing confirm a picture of rising inflationary pressures, which fits with the recent upward adjustment of our inflation forecasts for the eurozone, the Netherlands, the US and China (see our March Global Monthly, It takes three to TACO ).
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
