Resume af teksten:
Næste uges hovedfokus i USA er marts’ CPI-inflationsstigning, forventet til 0,9% m/m på grund af højere brændstofomkostninger, hvilket hæver å/å raten fra 2,4% til 3,3%. Core-inflationen forventes uændret nu og ventes at stige 0,2% m/m, med en å/å rate på 2,6%. Torsdag frigives februar PCE-inflationen, som ikke påvirkes af energichokket og ventes at være 0,4% m/m for både den samlede og kerne-PCE. Personlig indkomst forventes at være steget med 0,4%, mens personligt forbrug forventes at være lidt stærkere end sidste måned. I Kina offentliggøres marts’ inflationsdata fredag, med forventning om en stigende PPI på grund af energiprisstigninger og en forventet stigning i gennemsnitlig CPI-inflation til 1,2% i 2026 på grund af omkostningspres.
Fra ABN-Amro:
These are the key macro events for the upcoming week.
Rogier Quaedvlieg
Head of Economic Modelling/Senior US Economist
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
US – The main figure next week is the headline CPI inflation increase for March. We expect a m/m increase of 0.9% on the back of higher fuel costs, raising the y/y rate from 2.4 to 3.3%. We expect that core inflation is unaffected for now, and to rise by 0.2% m/m, lifting the y/y rate to 2.6% because of base effects. On Thursday we first get the February release for PCE inflation. This one is unaffected by the energy shock, but will still run hot, predominantly on the basis of the latest PPI release. Our nowcast points to 0.4% m/m for both headline and core PCE. Personal income likely rose again at 0.4%, while we expect personal spending to come in a bit stronger than last month, partly because of the stronger inflation, leaving the real growth rate at 0.2%.
China – March inflation data are due on Friday. We expect the data to confirm a picture of reflation spurred by rising cost push pressures from the Iran conflict. The effects of the spike in energy prices are particularly visible in producer price inflation, which is expected to have moved out of deflation territory in March for the first time since September 2022. The impact on consumer price inflation is expected to have been less dramatic so far, with Lunar New Year related seasonal effects also still playing a role. Still, we expect average CPI inflation to rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 led by cost-push pressures, despite ongoing domestic supply-demand imbalances.
Rogier Quaedvlieg
Head of Economic Modelling/Senior US Economist
Arjen van Dijkhuizen
Senior Economist
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