Resume af teksten:
Amerikanske aktier faldt, efter Alphabet og andre selskaber leverede lavere resultater end ventet.
Investorer søgte mod statsobligationer, schweizerfranc og japanske yen, mens oliepriserne steg på meldinger om mulige amerikanske angreb mod Iran.
ECB fastholdt renten, og Christine Lagarde oplyste, at hun fratræder i februar næste år.
Bank of Japan fastholdt renten og vurderede fortsat, at inflationsrisiciene er på opsiden.
Japans kerneinflation for oktober blev opgjort til 2,6 procent, lidt lavere end ventet.
Den endelige optælling i Israel viste, at hverken Benjamin Netanyahus koalition eller oppositionens alliance fik flertal til at danne regering.
Den svenske krone blev styrket mod euroen, og OMX30 steg 0,4 procent.
En investorundersøgelse viser, at flertallet forventer en svensk renteforhøjelse i næste uge.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
US stocks fell (S&P 500 -0.3%; Nasdaq -1.4%) after lower-than-expected results from Alphabet , among others, which added to concerns about valuations in the AI sector. This prompted investors to look for safer assets such as Treasuries as well as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Crude oil prices rose after media reports continued to suggest that the US may resume military strikes against Iran. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published an article that the president had been notified of possible future military options in Iran. The euro strengthened against the dollar while the price of gold fell below $4,000 per ounce and was on track for its lowest closing level for gold since mid-July. In Asia, the Tokyo Stock Exchange opens lower and the Chinese indices rise this morning.
The ECB kept rates on hold and Lagarde will leave in February. Yesterday, the ECB chose to keep the interest rate unchanged, without any commitments on future measures. Nothing in the decision or the press release rules out another interest rate hike in December. In connection with the meeting, Christine Lagarde also announced that she will resign in February next year. (See our comment here ).
The BoJ signalled inflation risks despite tighter monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) widely expected decision to leave interest rates on Friday morning was accompanied by a relatively hawkish economic forecast that continued to point to the risk that inflation could exceed the target. The BoJ assessed that underlying inflation is “broadly consistent” with the 2 per cent target for the first time since the inflation target was introduced in 2013. It also maintained its view that inflation risks are on the upside, despite the interest rate hike in September and the hawkish reversal in monetary policy.
GDP, inflation and the ECB’s analyst survey. Today, flash estimates of both October’s inflation and third-quarter GDP are published for several of the major countries in the euro area. In Norway, unemployment data for October and Norges Bank’s foreign exchange trading for November are released. In Colombia, the central bank is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged. The ECB also publishes its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters with updated projections for inflation, growth and unemployment. Japan’s core inflation for October, released just after midnight, came in at 2.6% and slightly lower than expected.
The final vote count in the Israeli election , which was announced early Friday local time, confirmed that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the main opposition alliance received enough seats to form a government. The result is likely to mean several weeks of power struggles and political uncertainty. A stalemate in the political negotiations means that Netanyahu will continue as acting prime minister until a new government is formed.
Worth reading from SEB : US GDP and SEB FI & FX Strategy . Today we also published our SEB Latin America Outlook , where we update the forecasts for Brazil and Mexico.
Nordic key stories
The krona strengthened against the euro yesterday and the OMX30 rose 0.4%.
New investor survey from SEB. The vast majority of people in our Investor Survey believe that the interest rate will be raised next week, but a small minority believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged. Almost everyone believes that the interest rate will remain (or be raised) to 2% in December, and by March, as many as 95% believe that the Riksbank will have raised interest rates by at least 50 basis points compared to today. Half of the investors believe that the Riksbank says that the upside risks for the interest rate path have increased since September, while the rest believe that the Executive Board signals that the risks are unchanged. Read more here .
Worth reading from SEB about Sweden : Swedish Economic Activity Report for October, GDP for the third quarter and October’s inflation ,
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/82936
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