Fra Danske Bank:
Story of the week (FX). As a base case, we expect energy prices to revert lower over the coming weeks and months. Even so, the negative energy supply shock could temporarily flip the correlation between USD FX and broader risk sentiment back to negative. This means that opening up USD exposure can help diversify the risk of higher energy prices, instead of amplifying downturns as has been the case through most of the past year. For investors with EUR-denominated assets, this supports tactically lower USD hedge ratios and favouring risk reversals over FX forwards.
Macro. We think the Fed is unlikely to react to a supply-driven bout of inflation even if the energy price shock extends further. Rebounding imports could fuel a temporary pick-up in goods inflation. We forecast February nonfarm payrolls at +70k and unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
FX. As long as energy price volatility remains the main driver of cross-asset moves, the correlation between USD FX and risk sentiment will remain negative. For investors with EUR-denominated assets, this supports tactically lower USD hedge ratios and favouring risk reversals over FX forwards.
STIR. EURUSD XCCY basis has widened back into negative territory as global USD funding conditions have tightened following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed is keeping liquidity conditions easy, which should limit a further widening.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
