Resume af teksten:
Den tyske økonomi voksede med 0,2% i andet kvartal af året sammenlignet med det forrige kvartal. Dette er en fortsættelse af en 0,4% stigning i første kvartal. Det markerer fire kvartaler i træk uden økonomisk tilbagegang for første gang siden pandemiens lockdowns. Væksten i andet kvartal blev primært drevet af eksport, mens investeringerne faldt. Korttidsperspektivet for økonomien påvirkes af energipriser og den urolige situation i Mellemøsten. Derudover kan lave vandstande i transportvandveje påvirke industriforsyningskæderne og byggeriet. Langtidsperspektivet vil afhænge af finanspolitiske tiltag og investeringer i forsvar og infrastruktur. Politiske ustabiliteter i Berlin kan også påvirke fremtidige reformbestræbelser. Hvis den økonomiske vækst fortsætter, forventes en årlig BNP-vækst på 0,9% i 2023.
Fra ING:
The just-released first estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of the year suggests that the German economy defied a rather depressed mood and fears related to the war in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, growing by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. That followed an upwardly revised 0.4% QoQ increase in the first quarter.
This is the first time since the end of the pandemic lockdowns that the German economy managed not to shrink for four consecutive quarters. Still, we must put this into perspective: average quarterly growth over this period has been just 0.1%, and the size of the German economy is still smaller than in late 2022. According to the statistical office, growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by exports, while investments dropped.
Looking ahead, it is obvious that the short-term outlook for the German economy is highly dependent on energy prices and the war in the Middle East, as it affects both industry and households. Even if the German economy has proven to be more resilient than some had feared, an expansion of the conflict to other trading routes would obviously pose a new risk to the economic rebound. Also, the warm and dry summer weather has brought water levels in main transportation waterways to record low levels, potentially affecting industrial supply chains and activity in the construction sector.
As concerning as the latest developments are for the short-term outlook, the longer-term outlook for the German economy will still be driven by fiscal stimulus and investments in defence and infrastructure, as well as the ability to translate recent reform plans into real and tangible action. In this delicate mix of short-term downside risks and longer-term optimism, let’s not forget that to fundamentally bring the German economy back on a sustainable growth path, the economy still needs more reforms that improve international competitiveness, a clear plan for affordable energy and more direct incentives, e.g. tax cuts, to boost domestic demand, ie both corporate investments and private consumption. Elements that are currently still missing in the recently announced reform package.
In this regard, a lot will depend on whether the latest political turbulence in Berlin will ease over the summer and also give a political reset. If they don’t, the risk is high that increasing tensions within the government as well as possible wins by the AfD in the upcoming state elections in September will choke off any additional reform efforts.
All in all, this morning’s GDP data illustrates that the German economy is doing better than its reputation suggests. Even if some might argue that this is purely due to lowered standards. In any case, with today’s data and even if the economy falls into stagnation in the second half of the year, annual GDP growth would come in at 0.9%; the best performance since 2022. It’s all a matter of perspective.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-gdp-growth-q2-26/
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