Resume af teksten:
Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) har besluttet at holde renten uændret, men udtrykker usikkerhed og venter og ser tiden an. ECB forbliver i en komfortabel position, med forventet vækst i eurozonen og en inflation på omkring 2%, hvilket betyder få argumenter for ændringer. En stærkere euro kunne dog presse ECB til at genstarte en rentefaldscyklus. Historisk set har ECB genoptaget rentefald efter lange perioder uden ændringer, som set i 2012 og 2024. Hvis ECB skulle ændre sin nuværende position, ville det sandsynligvis være ved et rentefald snarere end en stigning i den nærmeste fremtid. Styrkelsen af euroen og mulige inflationsafvigelser kan motivere nogle medlemmer til at overveje ratenedsættelser som en forsikring. Vi afventer kommentarer fra ECB’s præsident Christine Lagarde om euroen og inflationsmålet.
Fra ING:
The ECB has kept interest rates on hold but points to uncertainty, demonstrating high alertness amid its ongoing wait-and-see stance
Today’s official policy announcement illustrates that the ECB still sits comfortably in its ‘good place’, and should remain there for some time still to come
No need to change. This is what the European Central Bank must have thought at today’s meeting, as it just announced its decision to keep interest rates where they are. The official policy announcement also illustrates that the ECB still sits comfortably in its ‘good place’. And, with the eurozone expected to grow at around potential and inflation to remain somewhere around 2%, there are very few arguments for challenging the ECB’s good place.
Stronger euro could still push the ECB to restart rate cutting cycle
As the last ECB rate cut dates back to June last year, it’s fair to say that the hurdle to cut again is very high. However, looking at the history of the central bank’s rate-cutting cycles, a longer period of inactivity after a series of rate cuts does not automatically mean that the ECB is done. In 2012 and 2024, we saw two occasions where it restarted a cutting cycle that initially looked concluded.
Looking ahead, if the ECB were to leave its good place, any first move would be a cut, not a hike – at least in the near term. Whether it is general market unease or, more specifically, the strengthening of the euro, there is still a risk of inflation undershooting over the coming months. As long as the cyclical recovery of the eurozone continues, any inflation undershooting should not be mistaken for deflationary risks, but could still encourage more dovish ECB members to push for an insurance rate cut.
Let’s wait to see what ECB President Christine Lagarde has to say on the euro and the ECB’s symmetric inflation target at the press conference, starting at 2:45pm CET.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
