Resume af teksten:
Banker havde forventet et fald i låneefterspørgslen som følge af krigen i Mellemøsten, men oplevede i stedet en beskeden stigning i dette kvartal. Stigningen skyldes dels øget likviditet og behov for arbejdskapital under en forsyningskrise. Efterspørgslen på lån til faste investeringer er steget, og det er den stærkeste notering siden 2. kvartal 2022. Tyskland og Italien oplever positiv udvikling med øgede investeringer i forsvar og infrastruktur, mens Frankrig og Spanien går mere trægt. Usikkerhed påvirker husholdningerne, hvor boliglånsefterspørgslen er faldet, mens forbrugertilliden er svækket og renterne er steget. ECB-undersøgelsen viste, at bankerne har strammet kreditstandarderne en smule i andet kvartal, selvom en skarpere stramning var forventet. For ECB, der mødes torsdag for at fastlægge renterne, indikerer dette en moderat stramning af de finansielle forhold, men ikke en afskrækkelse af erhvervsinvesteringer.
Fra ING:
Banks had expected demand for loans to drop amid the Middle East war in last quarter’s survey, but they actually noted a modest increase this quarter. This is in part because of increased liquidity and working capital needs, which were to be expected during a supply shock. The number of banks reporting that loan demand for fixed investment needs is also up. In fact, this is the strongest reading for fixed investment since 2Q 2022.
So while uncertainty is clearly having an effect, investment appetite is not necessarily suffering. With more defence and infrastructure investment being undertaken in Germany, it is no surprise that it has seen a positive reading, together with Italy. France and Spain remain sluggish among the larger economies.
For households, the increased uncertainty is having a more profound effect. Mortgage demand decreased notably, according to the survey, as consumer confidence took a hit and interest rates have increased.
The ECB survey also indicated that banks have tightened credit standards modestly in the second quarter. Banks had expected more aggressive tightening last quarter, though. They note increased risk to the outlook and lower risk tolerance as the main drivers.
For the ECB – which meets on Thursday to decide on rates again – this means uncertainty is already having a modest tightening effect on financial conditions, with both households and banks being more careful. At the same time, conditions are clearly not yet deterring business investment in the economy. This is all in line with the ECB’s own perception of a neutral monetary stance for the moment.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
