Resume af teksten:
Bankernes udlånsvækst i eurozonen er i overensstemmelse med forventningerne om en beskeden BNP-vækst henover vinteren. Trods skuffende investeringsvækst i 2025 kan øget offentlig forbrug forbedre investeringsudsigterne i kommende kvartaler. Inflationen og de monetære forhold i eurozonen forbliver stabile. Den Europæiske Centralbanks neutrale holdning stemmer overens med den beskedne vækst i bankudlån, som stiger med 2,9% til husholdninger og 3,1% til ikke-finansielle selskaber. Mens udlån til husholdninger stiger stabilt, forbliver udlån til virksomheder volatilt og mindre end ventet investering vækster langsommere end ønsket fra bankernes udlånsindikatorer. Men med betydelige offentlige investeringer forventes en mulig ændring, især med øget finansiering til forsvar og NextGen EU-projekter i 2026, som kan overstige de forventede resultater fra kreditcyklussen alene.
Fra ING:
Steady bank lending growth in the eurozone is in line with our view of modest GDP growth over the winter. While investment growth disappointed in 2025, stronger public spending is set to boost the investment outlook for the quarters ahead
Just like inflation developments, monetary developments in the eurozone remain quite stable for the moment. The neutral stance from the ECB seems to be compatible with the modest growth in eurozone bank lending. Year-on-year growth in lending to households and non-financial corporates currently stands at 2.9% and 3.1% respectively, both slightly higher than in October.
Loan growth to households has been on a steady upward trend in recent months, while loan growth to corporates remains volatile. Historically, this is comparable to the levels seen in 2017, which was a period of decent investment growth for the bloc. Yet today, eurozone investment growth is a lot slower.
While investment currently disappoints and bank lending growth doesn’t indicate much of a change in pace for the time being, it could be in for a turn. Normally, bank lending growth is a leading indicator for investment, but with a lot of public money flowing into eurozone investments in 2026 – think of extra defence spending and the final sprint in NextGen EU projects in many (more southern) eurozone countries – the coming quarters could well see a turn where investments start to outpace expectations based solely on the credit cycle.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.