Resume af teksten:
Eurozonen oplevede et fald i inflationen til 1,7% fra 2%, hvor kerneinflationen er på 2,2%, den laveste siden oktober 2021. Selvom et rentefald fra Den Europæiske Centralbank ikke forventes, kan den bløde inflationsdata styrke argumenterne for en mere forsigtig pengepolitik. Energipriser har spillet en stor rolle i faldet, trods stigende priser ved pumpen. Tjenesteinflation er også faldet til 3,2%. Spekulationer om ECB-rentenedskæringer er steget, mens importpriserne er afdæmpede grundet en svagere amerikansk dollar. Trods det faldende tal, holder de mellemlange inflationforventninger sig stabile på omkring 2%, drevet af forventet økonomisk vækst fra offentlig investering.
Fra ING:
The drop to 1.7% from 2% in January was expected, although core inflation did come in softer than foreseen at 2.2%. While we don’t expect a cut, this will add fuel to the more dovish debates around the table at the European Central Bank’s governing council meeting
While eurozone inflation has dropped below 2%, medium-term inflation expectations are not softening
It’s a day before the ECB rate decision and eurozone inflation just dropped to 1.7% from 2%. That sounds more exciting than it is, as base effects in energy have done a lot of the heavy lifting here. Prices at the pump have actually been rising in recent weeks, despite the weaker US dollar.
At the same time, the continued decline in services inflation to 3.2% from 3.4% in January does indicate that broader softness in the inflation environment continues. Core inflation now stands at 2.2%, which is the lowest reading since October 2021.
The softer inflation environment is in line with our expectations for inflation to average below 2% for 2026. Nonetheless, speculation about a further ECB rate cut has intensified in recent weeks amid slowing imported inflation, partly driven by a weaker US dollar. Indeed, import prices remain subdued at present.
Then again, medium-term expectations for inflation have held steady around 2% as more public investment is expected to boost the economy over the course of the year. And indeed, optimism among businesses is on the rise. So, while inflation has dropped below 2%, medium-term inflation expectations are not softening right now.
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