Resume af teksten:
I den kommende uge afholdes et møde i Eurozonens Styrelsesråd torsdag. ECB signalerede i juni en pause i juli, hvilket tyder på forberedelser til kommende tarifpåvirkninger og usikkerhed. Fokus vil være på indikationer for fremtidige rentenedsættelser, og vi forventer yderligere to nedsættelser på 25 basispoint i år, hvilket reducerer indskudsrenten til 1,5% fra nuværende 2%. PMIs for Eurozonen offentliggøres også torsdag, med forventede stabilitetsindikatorer lige over neutralgrænsen. Der forventes fortsat stabilisering i fremstillingssektoren på kort sigt, selvom PMI forbliver under neutral grundet usikkerhed og tarifpåvirkninger. Optimismen stiger dog på grund af øget efterspørgsel fra regeringsudgifter, især i Tyskland. Stærk indenlandsk efterspørgsel vil opretholde en stærk servicesektor.
Fra ABNamro:
These are the Key Macro Events for the upcoming week.
Eurozone – The Governing Council will meet on Thursday. At the June meeting, the ECB signalled a July pause indicating the central bank is well positioned to face the coming period of tariff impact and uncertainty. As a result, the emphasis during the meeting will be on any signs for future rate cuts. We expect two more 25bp rate cuts by the ECB during the rest of the year taking the deposit rate to a terminal rate of 1.5% from 2% now. With the ECB clearly approaching the end of the rate cut cycle, risks to our view are tilted to an earlier end to rate cuts. Eurozone PMIs are released on Thursday as well. The composite PMI is expected to hold steady just above the neutral level. Further stabilisation in the eurozone manufacturing sector is expected, although the PMI is expected to remain below neutral as uncertainty and tariff impact clouds the near term outlook for the sector. Optimism in the sector is rising on the back of rising demand prospects in the medium term from higher government spending most notably in Germany. Strong domestic demand will keep the services PMI solidly in expansionary territory.
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