Resume af teksten:
Det amerikanske finansministerium vil mindst fordoble køb af lange statsobligationer i sit likvide tilbagekøbsprogram.
Købene skal reducere renteniveauet i den lange ende af rentekurven.
De lange amerikanske renter faldt først markant, men faldet er siden stort set blevet ophævet.
Der kan være behov for yderligere finanspolitiske tiltag for at få renterne væsentligt lavere.
Programmet har bidraget til en svækkelse af den amerikanske dollar ved at begrænse de lange renter.
Det har genoplivet debatten om dollarens købekraft i forbindelse med lavere renter og stigende gæld.
Investorer har i stigende grad søgt mod guld og sølv som mulige værdilagre.
Lavere renter reducerer alternativomkostningen ved at eje aktiver uden løbende afkast som guld og sølv.
En svagere dollar kan samtidig gøre ædelmetaller mere attraktive for investorer.
Fra Julius Bär:
Treasury buy-backs and the US dollar
In a surprise decision, the US Treasury announced last week that it will at least double the amount of long-dated US Treasuries it purchases as part of its liquid buy-back programme. The newly announced purchases aim to bring down the outright level of yields at the long end of the Treasury curve.
The idea is that if the government buys more bonds, bond prices should rise and their yields should fall. Lower yields would reduce borrowing costs across the economy.
The market’s knee-jerk reaction was a meaningful drop in long-end Treasury yields, but has since been largely reversed. It is too early to categorise this decision, but it is clear that a lot more will be required to push Treasury bond yields meaningfully lower.
In our view and in the absence of monetary policy easing anytime soon, more favourable fiscal announcements would likely be needed in order to cause a meaningful drop in yields, although this still appears unlikely.
The return of the debasement trade
The US Treasury’s decision to increase buy-backs of long-dated government bonds has contributed to dollar weakness by helping to limit long-term bond yields, reducing part of the yield advantage that has attracted global capital into US assets.
This has revived discussion around the so-called “USD debasement trade”, which reflects concerns that a combination of lower yields, a weaker dollar and rising debt levels could gradually erode the dollar’s purchasing power. In response, investors have renewed their focus on assets that may help preserve value over time.
Precious metals benefit from lower yield concerns
Against this backdrop, investors have increasingly turned to gold and silver as potential stores of value, with the outlook remaining particularly constructive for gold.
The Treasury’s bond-buying programme has supported precious metals by helping to limit upward pressure on long-term bond yields and contributing to a weaker US dollar. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-income-generating assets such as gold and silver, while a softer dollar tends to make them more attractive to investors. Although the move is not viewed as the start of formal yield-curve control, it has improved the outlook for precious metals by reducing downside risks and supporting higher fair-value estimates.
What investors need to know
Developments across fiscal policy, bond markets, currencies, and precious metals point to a common theme: investors continue to navigate a world shaped by debt, policy intervention and elevated uncertainty.
Our broader message remains unchanged: real assets rule and US headlines can create global opportunities, while volatility is a reason to practise open-mindedness.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/D37Ob5uZRZe7SqsTYs-fugkg2iBtn_RLyiacNYOksgNwdGccc-cIT0CVqgT2XuEbGw
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