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S&P 500-indtjeningen pr. aktie steg 51 % i andet kvartal og 26 % over de seneste fire kvartaler.
Indtjeningsvæksten ventes at aftage, mens produktivitetsgevinster fra AI får større betydning.
S&P 500-indtjening pr. aktie ventes at stige 11 % i både 2027 til 415 dollar og 2028 til 460 dollar.
Markedet kan ifølge Rob Kaplan indregne flere amerikanske renteforhøjelser, end økonomien berettiger til.
Europæiske gaspriser ventes at forblive høje i vinteren på grund af LNG-forstyrrelser og lave gaslagre.
LNG-prisen i Europa var 73 euro pr. MWh den 21. september, omkring 70 % over niveauet i juli.
ECB ventes at hæve indlånsrenten fra 2,5 % til 2,75 % i december.
Renterne i euroområdet ventes ikke at stige væsentligt over 3 %, mens energipriser kan svække vækst og husholdningernes disponible indkomst.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
The recent strength of S&P 500 earnings has raised concerns among some investors that stocks are in an “earnings bubble,” according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our strategists expect the boost to earnings from investment in artificial intelligence (AI) to gradually fade , making productivity gains from AI increasingly important for stock profitability. S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) grew 51% in the second quarter (year over year) and 26% during the past four quarters. By comparison, the S&P 500’s four-quarter growth in EPS has averaged 7% during the past 30 years. Earnings have also pulled ahead of their historical relationship with US economic growth.
Because equity prices have not kept pace with the surge in earnings, near-term valuations “show no hint of a bubble,” writes Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, in a report. The forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from 23 times a year ago to 19 times today, matching its 10-year average. However, “even an ‘average’ multiple may be expensive if current earnings are unsustainable,” he adds. The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, which uses the trailing 10 years of earnings, has climbed to one of the highest readings on record. “Our base case is for S&P 500 earnings growth to decelerate, not collapse, in coming years,” Snider writes. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts S&P 500 EPS to grow 11% in both 2027 (to $415) and 2028 ($460), driven by solid GDP growth and a fading tailwind from AI investment that gradually transitions into a growing boost from AI productivity. “Energy prices and interest rates create near-term macro risks around these forecasts, but the impact of AI is the biggest long-term question for corporate earnings,” Snider writes. Read the full article for more on Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts for the S&P 500.
Why Markets May Be Pricing in Too Many Fed Rate Hikes
Markets may be pricing in more tightening from the Federal Reserve than is warranted, according to Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, speaking on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast . Kaplan points to a divergence within the US economy: AI infrastructure and defense spending continue to boom, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors—housing and autos in particular—are already straining under higher interest rates. Those crosscurrents, he argues, are producing a more muted policy response than markets expect. “The Fed funds rate is potent, but it’s not going to slow down the AI infrastructure build. It’s not going to slow down defense spending,” he says. Listen to the full podcast for more on Kaplan’s outlook for the Fed and how policy is filtering through the economy.
European Gas Prices Are Expected to Stay High This Winter
As the winter heating season approaches, continued disruptions to the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East and low storage levels in northwest Europe are expected to keep European gas prices high , says Samantha Dart, co-head of Global Commodities Research. The price of LNG in Europe has risen around 70% since July to €73 per megawatt hour (MWh) as of September 21. Prices have been volatile amid shifting news flow around the Middle East conflict, including a recent selloff of more than 10%. Our commodities analysts expect prices to average €70/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026—well above the range of around €30-€60/MWh from before this summer.
Gas storage in northwest Europe has been filling up more slowly than expected ahead of the winter, and Goldman Sachs Research expects inventories to be 19% full by the end of March 2027, assuming winter temperatures in line with the ten-year average. “The risk to prices can go both ways, but the skew is to the upside,” Dart says. A winter that is one standard deviation colder than average could raise Goldman Sachs Research’s average winter price forecast by about 75%. In turn, a winter that is one standard deviation warmer than average could lower our analysts’ winter price assumption by about 30%. Read the full article for more on Goldman Sachs Research’s outlook for European gas.
Why the ECB Is Unlikely to Keep Rates Higher Than 3%
Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate rate hikes amid resilient economic growth and renewed energy inflation. Goldman Sachs Research agrees another hike is coming—but doesn’t see rates climbing as high as markets are pricing. Our economists forecast the ECB will raise its deposit rate to 2.75% in December, up from 2.5% today, citing resilient euro area growth (1.2% annualized in the first half of the year) and hawkish ECB communication.
Still, Chief Europe Economist Jari Stehn is “skeptical of current market pricing that the ECB will step up the hiking pace to take rates significantly above 3% ,” he writes in a report. Stehn projects that the renewed energy spike will weigh on economic growth and hit households’ disposable income in the coming months. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy prices, has held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, in line with the level from before the war in the Middle East, and long-term inflation expectations remain stable. “We maintain our view that the ECB will normalize rates from late 2027 as the inflation overshoot recedes,” Stehn writes. For more on the impact of increasing global interest rates, read our article looking at whether the S&P 500 can rally as Treasury yields rise.
Quoted: The Rise and Industrialization of Private Equity
“ Competition on the private equity side, where we play, has always been intense because it really only takes one other party to create a very competitive circumstance. ” —Rich Friedman, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management In Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors , Friedman says there are still plenty of investment opportunities in private equity, even as private markets have grown far larger and more industrialized than he would have imagined a few decades ago. He also tells host and Investment Banking Chairman Alison Mass that AI may take longer than some investors expect to fulfill its promise, and that there may be more opportunities in servicing data centers than in owning the infrastructure. Listen to the full podcast for more on Friedman ’ s 45-year investing career building the firm ’ s merchant bank.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
