Resume af teksten:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing the US economy, notably in the tech sector where employment has declined relative to its long-run trend. AI automation poses exposure to approximately 300 million jobs globally, potentially impacting 25% of work hours in the US. Some knowledge and creative sector workers, such as management consultants and graphic designers, face displacement risks. The software sector sees widened credit spreads due to fears of AI disruption, raising borrowing costs. Nonetheless, certain software companies, particularly those with critical and proprietary products, may benefit from AI. In private credit markets, concerns over risks are emerging as some investors withdraw funds, though fundamentals remain strong with double-digit growth in borrower revenue and EBITDA. Meanwhile, US financial sector stocks show underperformance, suggesting possible macroeconomic concerns not reflected in the broader market. Additionally, AI adoption by US small businesses is growing, with over three-quarters now using AI, although full integration remains limited.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already having an impact on some parts of the US economy, says Joseph Briggs, who co-leads the global economics team in Goldman Sachs Research. Tech sector employment as a share of overall employment has fallen below its long-run trend. And some workers in the knowledge and creative sectors, such as management consultants, call center workers, and graphic designers, have also seen some displacement of their labor by AI. Globally, around 300 million jobs are exposed to AI automation. In the US, AI can potentially automate tasks that account for 25% of all work hours, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Workers who are likely to be displaced from the knowledge industries by AI may be less suited to other kinds of labor that are most needed, says Evan Tylenda, an analyst with GS SUSTAIN.
On the one hand, these include low-skill, low-wage jobs: fast-food workers, cleaners, home healthcare workers, for instance. On the other hand, the market will also require more skilled technical work, of the kind provided by construction workers, engineers, electricians, and lineworkers. In the US alone, Tylenda says, roughly 500,000 new jobs will need to be filled to satisfy the demand for more power by 2030. Read the full article on AI’s impact on the US labor market.
How the ‘SaaS Apocalypse’ Is Affecting the Corporate Bond Market
Fears about AI disruption in the software sector are filtering into the bond market. Credit spreads for software companies (the extra yield that lenders demand to invest in a corporate bond instead of a similar-maturity government bond) have widened by more than 250 basis points this year. That makes the relative cost of borrowing for the software sector much higher than for other companies issuing high-yield, or speculative, bonds.
But some software companies are much less likely to be disrupted—and could even potentially benefit from AI—according to Matt Cifuentes, a credit analyst in Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We think it is incorrect to generalize that AI will disrupt all incumbent software players. While there will no doubt be losers, there will also be winners that adapt their business models and use AI to improve their product portfolios and stave off competition from AI-first upstarts,” Cifuentes writes in his team’s report . He says there may be a few groups that are more likely to emerge as winners: Providers of critical software that is deeply embedded in customer workflows—particularly if they use proprietary data and serve regulated industries Cybersecurity software providers (especially because cyber criminals are using AI to create malware, which will increase the demand for protection) Providers of “systems-of-record” software that store and organize primary data sources that customers use to make business decisions, such as financial transaction data or sensitive employee and client data On the other hand, companies at higher risk of disruption include single-product software providers with small customer bases, software providers that lack proprietary data, and information technology consulting firms, where advances in agentic AI could disrupt existing business models. Also listen to our episode of The Markets podcast : “I’d rather be a bond than a stock right now.”
The Outlook for Private Credit amid Rising Market Stress
Investors are worried that unrecognized risks have accumulated in private credit , prompting some to pull money from the market. But there are signs that private credit fundamentals remain strong , says Vivek Bantwal, global co-head of private credit in Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Private credit is certainly getting a lot of media attention right now, not all of it necessarily nuanced or accurate,” he says. Some managers have put out disclosures, seeking to allay concerns, and the information is reassuring, Bantwal says. They are showing double-digit growth in revenue and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) by borrowers, increasing interest coverage, and improving margins. Part of what is occurring in private credit markets is more technical than fundamental, Bantwal says. Retail investors who embraced private credit funds more recently may be pulling some money out, creating outflows and technical weakness in the market. Private credit lending to software companies is generally protected at the top of the capital structure (first in line for payment if there’s a restructuring), but outcomes may vary based on underwriting practices. Private credit is unlikely to pose a significant financial system risk because investments are not concentrated, leverage is limited, and assets and liabilities are well matched. Read the full article or listen to our Exchanges podcast on the state of private credit.
US Financial Sector Stocks ‘at a Crossroads’
Underperformance in US financials stocks could suggest a more negative economic outlook than the broader market is indicating. Financials stocks within the S&P 500 are down 10.4% since the beginning of the year (as of March 26)—around twice the decline of the broader index.
“With the sector more weighted towards companies exposed to the impact of rising unemployment, investors in financials stocks may be preparing for a macro slowdown that the rest of the market hasn’t exactly agreed with,” says Christian DeGrasse, a financial sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets. Despite signs of resilience in recent consumer credit and spending data, current valuations for consumer finance stocks imply roughly a 30-50% chance of a moderate recession (considering both their year-to-date decline as well as how a recession would weigh on their earnings). On the other hand, the decline in financial stocks could be about overly optimistic expectations entering the year rather than the economic outlook. Additionally, concerns about possible risks in private lending and the potential for businesses across a range of industries to be disrupted by AI go some way to explaining the drop. “Tactically, the dislocation between financials and the rest of the market feels like an opportunity,” says Mike Washington, an equities sales trader in Global Banking & Markets. And after months of selling, investors’ net allocation to financials is now in just the 15th percentile over the last five years, according to data from Goldman Sachs Prime Services. This could put the sector in a good position for a rebound, according to Washington. “The overarching sense is that we’re at a crossroads in financials. Either they’ve pre-traded a macro move that the rest of the market hasn’t noticed or there’s a dislocation and a good buying opportunity,” he says. Also read our article on how the Iran war is impacting investment portfolios .
AI Adoption by US Small Businesses Jumps
Adoption of AI by US small businesses is on the rise, according to a recent Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices survey. More than three-quarters of the 1,256 US small businesses polled say they are currently using AI, up from 60% in March last year. However, only 14% say they are fully integrating AI into core operations, suggesting many are still in early stages of adoption. Among business owners using AI, the top challenges were concerns about data privacy and security (50%), a lack of technical expertise (49%), and difficulty choosing the right AI tools (48%). The survey was conducted by Babson College and David Binder Research from January 27-February 4. The small business owners polled are participants in Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses program, which provides entrepreneurs with a comprehensive business education program and access to capital and business support services. Read the full results of the survey.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
