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Goldman Sachs forudser, at det ligevægtede S&P 500-indeks kan klare sig bedre end det traditionelle markedsværdivægtede indeks i år, grundet faldende ydeevne fra de store tech-giganter. Investorer skifter deres fokus til sektorer som industri og finans, som forventes at drage fordel af økonomisk vækst i USA. Samtidig viser en meningsmåling, at investorer foretrækker emerging markets, idet MSCI Emerging Markets Index har overgået S&P 500. Hedgefonde fortsætter med at tiltrække opmærksomhed efter stærke resultater, med øget interesse fra investorer. Indien forudses at have en vækst på 6,9% i 2026, understøttet af en ny handelsaftale med USA og økonomiske politikker. I Europa forventes den tyske økonomi at vokse med 1,1% i 2026, hovedsageligt drevet af øgede militærudgifter.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
The equal-weight S&P 500 index could outperform the standard market-cap-weighted S&P 500 this year, says Mike Washington , an equities sales trader in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. After years of outperformance, the Magnificent 7 tech giants have stumbled year-to-date. As a result, the S&P 500 itself has underperformed its equal-weight counterpart, which is much less driven by a small number of tech giants. Washington explains that investors have become increasingly concerned about the Magnificent 7’s significant spend on AI, particularly since they have turned to the debt markets to fund some of that spending. At the same time, more optimistic predictions about the US economy are sending investors into industrials, financials, and certain consumer-exposed stocks, which “would be huge beneficiaries of the accelerating growth that’s expected throughout the first half of this year,” Washington says.
Meanwhile, there may be more room for investors to shift out of the tech giants. “Positioning across the Mag 7 trade is at all-time highs—which suggests that the incremental buyer might not have much dry powder left,” Washington says. “I expect the Mag 7 to keep underperforming—and S&P equal-weight to be the big winner this year,” Washington says.
From the Trading Floor: a ‘Noisy’ US Jobs Report
The January US jobs report released on Wednesday could give fresh ammunition to the cyclical trade—investing in stocks that tend to perform well when the economy is growing—says Matt Kaplan, an equities sales trader in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, according to the government report, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. However, job growth for 2025 was revised significantly lower, and the January payrolls number could have been significantly boosted by a methodological shift, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
“The report was super noisy, because of the revisions and the methodology change—and it could actually signal that there will be more noise in payroll prints going forward,” Kaplan says. That said, the report does suggest that “the jobs market is in decent shape, perhaps contradicting some real-time indicators from earlier in the year,” Kaplan adds. This, in turn, could continue to boost sectors exposed to US economic growth. “If the jobs market stays healthy, it should continue to feed into the cyclical trade—which has already been a relative outperformer in 2026,” Kaplan says. “The focus for investors now turns toward what a healthier jobs market means for the further Fed cuts that are expected in the back half of the year.”
Marquee Poll: Investors Choose Emerging Markets Index Over S&P
Emerging market stocks have had a strong start to the year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 12% in the year to date compared to -0.2% for the S&P 500 (as of February 12, in US dollar terms). Investors expect the outperformance of emerging markets to continue, according to a survey of 537 Goldman Sachs clients conducted from January 28-30. For the first time since February 2019, Marquee QuickPoll respondents expect the MSCI EM index to beat the S&P 500 on a monthly basis.
When it comes to US GDP growth, fiscal worries and the possibility of a sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are the top risks that investors are watching, according to the QuickPoll. About half of the respondents said they are planning to maintain or increase their hedges against a potential downturn in US equities, versus only 3% who expect to decrease their hedges.
Hedge Funds Have Growing Momentum
Hedge funds delivered double-digit returns for the second year in a row in 2025, and allocators plan to boost their exposure to the category this year, according to Goldman Sachs Prime Services.
Last year, hedge funds “deftly navigated significant volatility across geopolitical and trade tensions, monetary policy, and other market idiosyncrasies,” Freddie Parker and Vincent Lin of Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets write in a report. The share of hedge fund returns attributable to alpha, or risk-adjusted performance in excess of market gains, has reached the highest level in more than 30 years. More than 90% of allocators report that their hedge fund portfolios met or exceeded expectations last year, according to a Goldman Sachs survey of 317 firms that allocate money to alternative investments. Almost half of the allocators surveyed (49%) say they plan to increase their exposure to hedge funds this year, up from 37% a year earlier, and just 4% say they plan to decrease exposure. The net figure of 45% seeking increased exposure is a record in Goldman Sachs data that goes back to 2017.
India’s GDP Forecast to Grow 6.9% in 2026
Following a resilient year of economic growth in 2025 and the announcement of a new US trade deal, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts India’s real, inflation adjusted GDP to be robust in the coming calendar years. Our analysts expect 6.9% year-on-year growth in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027—both significantly above consensus estimates. A trade deal with the US was announced in early February, in which reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods were reduced from 25% to 18%. This would bring India’s tariff rate in line with that of other Asian countries, in the range of 15-19%. Our analysts expect an incremental growth boost of 0.2 percentage point of GDP (annualized) with these new tariffs, based on India’s goods exports exposure of roughly 4% of GDP to US final demand. In the year gone by, India’s GDP grew at 7.7% year-on-year in real terms, although nominal GDP growth was at a six-year low (excluding the pandemic) due to record-low inflation. This growth came despite the headwinds of US tariffs—the highest imposed on any country in the region.
A combination of policy rate cuts, regulatory relaxation for banks, and a weaker exchange rate eased financial conditions in India. But tax cuts also spurred a recovery of rural and urban consumption. In 2026, our analysts forecast headline inflation to rise to 3.9% year-on-year, close to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) target of 4%. “With 125bp of repo rate cuts, liquidity injections, and deregulation measures by the RBI in CY25, we see limited scope for further policy rate easing by the RBI,” Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief India economist, writes in his team’s report. Services exports remained robust last year, growing at around 11% year-on-year on continued strong growth in software and business service exports. But capital inflows were muted. Indian equity markets saw around $19 billion in portfolio outflows from foreign investors amid an earnings slowdown and heightened uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, while debt inflows were around $7.5 billion. The Munich Security Conference starts today. After six years of stagnation, Goldman Sachs Research expects the German economy to grow 1.1% in 2026, boosted by rising defense spending. Read the full article .
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