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Brian Garrett fra Goldman Sachs forudser, at amerikanske aktier kan nå nye rekorder i de kommende måneder. S&P 500 har allerede genvundet marts’ tab. Garrett bemærker, at investoroptimismen er steget markant, hvilket kan pege på manglende købere og svage afkast på kort sigt. Dog kan langsigtede investorer stadig forvente positive resultater. En undersøgelse af 837 institutionelle investorer viser bekymring over fortsatte forsinkelser i olietransport gennem Hormuzstrædet. Jerome Dortmans fra Goldman Sachs mener, at normaliseringen af olietrafik vil ske gradvist. Projiceret AI-infrastrukturudbygning er estimeret mellem 4 og 8 billioner dollar over fem år, men usikkerheder kan påvirke denne vurdering. Osman Ali argumenterer, at AI kan gøre markeder mindre effektive ved at fremme flokadfærd blandt investorer. Matt Weir og Matheus Dibo fra Goldman Sachs ISG anbefaler fokus på “time in the markets” fremfor at forsøge at time markedet.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Market history suggests that US equities will make more record highs in the months ahead, says Brian Garrett, head of equity execution on the Cross Asset Sales desk in Global Banking & Markets. After a massive rebound in the past six weeks—which saw the S&P 500 recoup all of its March losses and then some—a key question is whether US stocks are likely to cool off. Garrett says these concerns are reasonable. He points out that “investor sentiment has gone from quite negative to extremely positive” in a short length of time—which could suggest that there is now a lack of potential buyers. Indeed, after the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs, returns over the next month do tend to be below average. Still, he believes that the recent rally is built on a solid foundation. “The geopolitical environment has cooled, the economy is healthy, and earnings have surprised to the upside,” Garrett says. And a deeper look at the historical record reveals an interesting pattern.
While returns after all-time highs tend to be weaker over the next month, they’re actually stronger over the next year. “Longer-term-oriented investors should still expect positive things from US equities,” Garrett says.
Marquee Poll: Investors Expect Further Delays for Oil Flows
Investors are bracing for oil shipments from the Middle East to remain constricted, according to a survey of 837 institutional clients of Goldman Sachs conducted from May 4-6.
The largest group of respondents expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—through which around one-fifth of global oil and gas supply usually flows—to return to normal after the end of July. Only 17% of respondents expect traffic through the Strait to return to normal in May. Jerome Dortmans, co-head of global oil and products trading in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, says that even in the event of a peace deal between the US and Iran, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could still take some months. “I don’t expect there to be an open flooding of barrels just leaving the region… I think the path will be gradual, and so I think that it will still take three months before the market will start pricing some of the more bearish scenarios that are being discussed” for oil prices, Dortmans says on an episode of The Markets podcast recorded May 7. Find more of our insights on energy markets .
Four Key Assumptions Behind AI Spending Estimates
The projected cost of building artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is now widely pegged at $4 trillion-$8 trillion over the next five years. Debates about whether this figure is “too high” are usually framed around demand: Will AI adoption and monetization justify the spending? But according to an article by George Lee and Lucas Greenbaum of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, the scale of investment required for the AI build-out is itself more uncertain than commonly assumed. Estimates rest on a number of assumptions that, if changed, can significantly increase or decrease the amount of capital required: The useful life of AI chips: Silicon chips have historically had a useful life of roughly five years. Altering the replacement cycle to six years cuts hundreds of billions from the total projected spend, while shortening it does the opposite. The cost of next-generation data centers: Today’s data centers operate at significantly higher densities, requiring advanced cooling solutions, industrial-scale power, and greater redundancy. Because data centers are built at massive scale, even modest changes in cost per megawatt compound quickly. Chip architecture mix: Experts are actively debating what percentage of AI workloads will shift from graphics processing units to other forms of silicon. One factor will be key in determining whether this shift will reduce overall AI spending: elasticity of demand. In other words, when compute gets cheaper, do buyers spend less, or do they use more of it? Bottlenecks: Power grid queues, labor shortages, and equipment lead times can shift attention to demand-side questions—whether end-market revenue will materialize fast enough to justify the capital at risk. “The implication is not that current estimates are obviously too high or too low, but that they are far more conditional than they appear, and so may shift over time,” Lee and Greenbaum write.
Why AI Could Make Markets Less Efficient
Even as AI provides new tools for investors, the rise of the technology may make markets less efficient, says Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies in Goldman Sachs Asset Management. For segments of markets with little available data, such as small caps and emerging-market stocks, “there’s probably some price discovery that these models allow the average investor to do,” which could ultimately “make that segment of the market maybe a little bit more efficient,” Ali says on an episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges . But Ali believes the more profound effect may be crowding. “These models, in the hands of average investors, will create herd behavior. They’ll encourage investors to pile into the same type of securities,” because “random as they may be from time to time, they’ll likely give the same answer to the same type of question,” Ali says. For instance, if many different investors ask which stocks will outperform, they may all be given similar names. This will “create a different type of inefficiency in the market, where crowding and other such forces will push prices away from any fundamental value,” Ali says. The rise of AI, then, could make markets more predictable—which is to say, less efficient. That said, Ali says that investors who have a good sense of how to use these tools are finding them very valuable. “The quantitative investor from 37 years ago, when our organization first started, prided themselves on going broad but not very deep in data. Today that is completely different,” he says. “We analyze 15,000 stocks every single day, but we can go very deep, because the data to do that is available.” But that’s not to say that the model is making the ultimate investment decision. “The way our investors approach investing is to first write down on a piece of paper what we think we want to look for in a company,” Ali says. Once the investor has a catalyst in mind, and knows what elements they are looking for, the model may help them find it, he says.
Why It’s So Hard to Time Stock Markets
Matt Weir and Matheus Dibo on the latest Live Insights video with moderator Nicola Gifford.
The resilience of US stocks in the face of war in the Middle East and rising oil prices serves as a reminder that investors should not try to anticipate market troughs , according to Goldman Sachs Wealth Management’s Investment Strategy Group (ISG). US equities typically follow the long-term upward trend of US corporate earnings, making the hurdle to underweight US equities very high, according to ISG. Additionally, the performance of the S&P 500 year-to-date—a 9% sell-off between January and March followed by a 14% rebound through April—underscores the significant potential penalty for attempting to time the market. “Equity markets are forward looking: They tend to trough when the news is still bad. That’s why it’s so hard trying to time them,” says Matheus Dibo, head of tactical asset allocation in ISG. “What we typically tell our clients is that instead of focusing on timing the markets, they should really focus on time in the markets,” he adds. Dibo points out that an investor who missed out on just the 10 best trading days in the market since the Global Financial Crisis trough would have less than half the cumulative total return than someone who stayed invested in the S&P 500 for the entire period. That does not mean that investors should simply buy and hold stocks, adds Matt Weir, managing director in ISG. “Rather, stay invested from a long-term strategic standpoint, but be at the ready to potentially make tactical moves as opportunities present themselves.” Watch ISG’s video for more from Dibo and Weir on key market risks and how investors can position their portfolios.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.