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Råvarer har givet et samlet afkast på 36 procent i 2026 frem til 20. oktober og har klaret sig bedre end aktier og især obligationer.
Goldman Sachs Research anbefaler fortsat en positiv råvareallokering, selv om olie og europæisk naturgas ventes at falde moderat.
Geopolitiske konflikter, en mulig kold vinter og risiko for forstyrrelser i fødevareeksport kan løfte energi- og landbrugspriser.
Begrænset kobberudbud og efterspørgsel fra elektrificering, AI og datacentre nævnes som støtte for kobberpriserne.
Investorer undersøger i stigende grad, om teknologiselskabers AI-investeringer kan omsættes til indtægter og positive pengestrømme.
Mere låntagning til AI-investeringer får ifølge Rich Privorotsky stigende betydning for kreditmarkederne.
Over 42 procent af de adspurgte små virksomheder anvender AI til finansiel analyse og forretningsplanlægning, mere end dobbelt så mange som i 2024.
Det globale salg af luksusvarer ventes at stige 7 procent i 2027 efter flere år med svag udvikling.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Commodities have rallied strongly in 2026: The BCOM commodities basket has generated a total return of 36% this year (as of October 20), outperforming equities and especially bonds. “We continue to recommend a positive commodities allocation, both tactically and structurally, despite our base case that crude oil and European natural gas prices moderate as Mideast supply adapts to high supply- and shipping-disruption risks,” say Daan Struyven and Sam Dart, co-heads of Global Commodities Research within Goldman Sachs Research.
Goldman Sachs Research says there are three factors that support using commodities as a hedge for portfolios: Geopolitical escalation and, for European natural gas, a cold winter could push energy prices significantly higher. Equity—and especially bond—prices have become unusually sensitive to energy prices. The Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars, a high probability of a weather-disrupting Super El Niño, and potential food export restrictions may push agricultural prices higher. Structurally, portfolios can benefit from commodity diversification because these assets provide insurance as increasing concentration of commodities supply, US-China competition, and broader geopolitical fragmentation increase the risk of supply disruption. In addition, commodities in which rising demand meets persistent supply constraints face structural upward price pressure. For example, copper mine supply is constrained and demand is supported by electrification, AI and data centers, energy security, and quasi-strategic stockpiling, Struyven and Dart say. Central bank diversification is also boosting the demand for gold, while annual mine supply remains small relative to the above-ground stock of the yellow metal. For more on Struyven’s outlook for oil, copper, and gold, listen to the latest episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast.
Investor Scrutiny of AI Stocks Is Growing
Rich Privorotsky on The Markets
As hyperscalers report third-quarter earnings, investors are assessing the sustainability of tech companies’ spending on AI as well as their capacity for growth in their cloud businesses, says Rich Privorotsky, head of European Equities Trading within Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. “It’s not enough just to say that you’re spending a lot of money, but you also need to demonstrate that backlog is converting into revenues in a meaningful capacity,” Privorotsky says on The Markets podcast . Investors are particularly focused on how quickly some tech companies will be able to generate cash flows that break even. He says that metric has growing implications for credit markets, given the immense amount of borrowing that has taken place to fund AI investment. But even as investor scrutiny of AI stocks increases, Privorotsky points out that the price for computing is climbing to new highs. “There is insatiable demand for what they have for sale,” he says. “And so, I would say with a bit of a glass half full view, they should have a pretty good story to tell.” Listen to the full episode to hear more on Privorotsky’s outlook for hyperscalers, and how energy prices, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments are rippling through financial markets.
Quoted: How Small Business Owners Are Adopting AI
Bob McClure, co-owner of McClure’s Pickles and graduate of Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses
“I think AI is uniquely suited to small business entrepreneurship because you are so strapped for resources in terms of time, people, and money. I now need to hire humans to manage my AI.” —Bob McClure, co-owner of McClure’s Pickles and graduate of Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses , an education and support program that has helped thousands of enterprises grow and create jobs Small businesses are increasingly applying AI to their core operations, according to a report, The AI Economy is a Small Business Economy , released this month by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses . More than 42% of 10,000 Small Businesses graduates who responded to a survey say they use AI for financial analysis and business planning, which is more than double the rate in 2024, the report finds. McClure, who has been independently integrating AI into his company, is using the technology to manage several tasks at his pickle production facility in Detroit, Michigan, including a critical function: food safety. The company must make sure it can quickly trace the raw ingredients in its products in the event of a recall. By integrating AI into the company’s enterprise resource planning system, this function now runs automatically, cutting the time of a test to under two minutes from 30 to 45 minutes. Read the full article on how small businesses are using AI.
Why Luxury Goods Companies’ Revenues Are Forecast to Climb
The outlook for makers of luxury goods is improving after several years of lackluster performance, according to Goldman Sachs Research . Global sales are forecast to grow 7% in 2027, based on an analysis of a basket of public stocks that includes the largest and best-known makers of high-end watches, clothing, handbags, shoes, and other products. “We view this as a solid recovery for an industry that has faced a prolonged period of sluggish performance,” Erwan Rambourg, head of Europe Luxury and Lifestyle in Goldman Sachs Research, writes in a report.
The US has become a bright spot for sales of luxury goods, marking a shift in behavior in a market where there has long been a disconnect between high wealth and relatively low demand for such products. Share prices have fallen for several years in the luxury sector but so have earnings estimates. This means that valuations don’t look particularly attractive or overly stretched. Rambourg notes, however, that valuation is not typically a catalyst for investors to buy or sell these companies. “Instead, it is more a function of sales momentum, which we see picking up soon,” Rambourg writes. Read the full article for more on Goldman Sachs Research’s outlook for luxury stocks.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
