Resume af teksten:
Bank of Korea forventes at lade renten forblive uændret på fredag. Stærk efterspørgsel efter chips har bidraget til at afbøde virkningerne af råvareforsyningsbegrænsninger. Stigende oliepriser driver inflationen, men regeringen holder den i skak. Taiwan offentliggør inflationsdata for marts, hvor en let moderering til 1,6% ventes, lavere end februars 1,75%. Denne udvikling kan antyde stigende prispres i energisektoren. I Kina forventes marts-inflationsdata at vise fortsat prispres, påvirket af stigende energipriser. Forbrugerprisindekset (CPI) forventes at forblive højt på 1,2% årlig basis, mens producentprisindekset (PPI) forventes at stige til positivt terræn på 0,6% for første gang siden 2022.
Fra ING:
The Bank of Korea is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, while China and Taiwan release inflation data amid surging global oil prices
Asia Research highlights of the week
South Korea’s economy benefits from robust chip exports and fiscal support Japanese business sentiment remains solid, supporting April BoJ hike Oil drives South Korean inflation higher, but government curbs keep it contained Slower Tokyo inflation unlikely to deter Bank of Japan’s April hike South Korean data points to firm first-quarter growth, but Iran risks abound Chinese PMI rebounds as Iran impacts start trickling through
South Korea: BoK expected to keep rates steady
The Bank of Korea is expected to leave policy rates unchanged on Friday. Strong chip demand has helped offset the effects of commodity supply constraints. Oil prices are driving inflation higher, but government measures are keeping it contained. Against this backdrop, the BoK is likely to take a wait-and-see approach for now to analyse the impact of Middle East shocks. We expect price pressures to increase and financial imbalances to worsen in the coming months. This could prompt the BoK to hike rates in the third quarter.
Taiwan: Inflation to moderate, but underlying pressures remain
Taiwan’s March inflation data is out on Wednesday. We expect inflation to moderate slightly to 1.6% year-on-year, lower than February’s Lunar New Year holiday-boosted 1.75% level. The data is likely to show early signs of price pressures emerging in the energy sector. With inflation risks rising and growth consistently beating forecasts, the odds are shifting toward the central bank’s next move being a hike rather than a cut. Unless inflation significantly overshoots expectations in the coming months, policymakers will likely stay on hold when they next meet in June.
China: Inflation data to show some momentum
China releases its March inflation data on Friday. We expect that the positive price momentum from the last couple of months carried over into March, especially with the surge in energy prices amid the Iran War. The price subcomponents of the purchasing managers’ data, which reached their highest monthly levels since 2022, suggest that inflation will heat up in March. We expect CPI inflation to remain elevated at 1.2% YoY and PPI inflation to return to positive territory for the first time since 2022, at 0.6%. Markets will also monitor local gasoline price moves, as the bi-weekly adjustment is expected on 7 April. Prices have climbed since the outbreak of the war, but at a much slower pace than overall crude oil prices.
Key events in Asia next week
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