Resume af teksten:
Eurozonens PMI for marts faldt til et 10-måneders lavpunkt på 50,5 fra 51,9 i februar. Fremstillingssektoren påvirkes mindre end servicesektoren, mens indgangspriserne igen stiger. Økonomiske udsigter er betydeligt svækket, påvirket af konflikten i Mellemøsten. Producenterne oplever stabile outputtal, mens services PMI faldt fra 51,9 til 50,1. Fokus på energitunge industrier viser potentiale for vanskelig genopretning. Forbrugertilliden er lav, da priserne på brændstof stiger, hvilket kan presse forbruget. Optimismen blandt europæiske virksomheder er dalende, med forstyrrelser i forsyningskæder og stigende omkostninger. En hurtig afslutning af konflikten kan forbedre udsigterne, men nuværende forretningsbetingelser er forværret.
Fra ING:
Eurozone’s PMI for March has dropped to a 10-month low, from 51.9 in February to 50.5. The survey suggests that manufacturing has so far been less hit than services and that input prices are once again on the rise. The economic outlook has weakened significantly, but all now rests on how the conflict unfolds
The Middle East conflict is starting to hurt European manufacturers
Ahead of the Middle East conflict, optimism among European businesses was strong. Growth was maintaining a decent pace over previous quarters, and expectations of increased public investment were boosting hopes of a rebound among manufacturers.
But the war has put paid to hopes of short-term growth acceleration. Businesses were much less optimistic in March, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index, and reported significant increases in input costs and supply chain disruptions.
The bright spot was the manufacturing sector, where the output PMI remained broadly stable (51.7 compared to 51.9 in February). This still indicates decent output growth for now, but the mood among manufacturers for the months ahead has become more downbeat.
The eurozone’s vulnerabilities are once again laid bare. For energy-intensive industry, this means that a recovery will be harder to achieve, which matters significantly for overall production. And consumers are less confident with prices at the pump having jumped, which means that household consumption could be under pressure despite decent wage growth. The services PMI already reported a big decline, from 51.9 to 50.1.
For the eurozone economy, a return to strength depends very much on the length of the Middle East conflict. A fairly fast end would boost hopes of a more modest impact on consumer prices and would increase chances of a rebound for industry. But as today’s PMI illustrates, business conditions have worsened for the moment, and optimism is taking a hit.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
