Resume af teksten:
Den britiske økonomi voksede hurtigere end forventet i november, og økonomer forudser en vækst på 0,9% i 2026. Lavere inflation kan føre til yderligere rentenedsættelser, hvor centrale økonomer forudser en bankrente på 3,25%. De nuværende tegn på øget bankudlån til virksomheder kan støtte væksten, selvom fremtidige rentefald kræver en vedvarende lav inflation, ikke stigende arbejdsløshed. Der er potentiale for vækst gennem lavere opsparingssatser, hvilket kan øge den økonomiske aktivitet. En sæsonbestemt anomali har medført uventet stærkere vækst i starten af året siden 2022. Investeringer i kunstig intelligens har ikke oplevet det samme boom som i USA, men en ændring kunne påvirke væksten i 2026. Forholdet mellem Storbritannien og EU kan også spille en rolle, med potentiel progressiv økonomisk tilpasning, selvom betydelige ændringer kan tage tid at gennemføre.
Fra ING:
From faster rate cuts to lower savings, closer EU ties to AI, here’s how the UK economy could grow faster than we expect in 2026
Can the UK economy lift spirits like England’s women’s footballers did last year?
The UK grew faster than expected in November, which begs the question: are we being too gloomy about the year ahead?
Our view – shared by most UK economists – is that 2026 is going to see the economy grow more slowly than in 2025. We expect 0.9% growth this year, below the 1.4% projected for 2025. That’s slightly below consensus.
So how could we be pleasantly surprised?
Lower interest rates
One of our main calls for 2026 is that the UK will no longer look like an outlier on inflation. Food inflation, which is highest in Western Europe, should come down. Services inflation will come dramatically lower from April. Lower energy prices help, too. Headline CPI should fall from 3.2% in November to 2% from April onwards – and could perhaps dip below.
If that sounds good for consumers, then remember that wage growth is also falling rapidly. Unemployment is rising, too, so when you net that all off, real disposable incomes are unlikely to grow in 2026. More importantly, the Bank of England is highly reticent to cut rates much further from here. We expect two more cuts in March and June, leaving Bank Rate at 3.25%. Markets are even more cautious than that.
But the committee is incredibly divided, which means it only takes one official to change their view in order to drastically change the path of interest rates. As it becomes more evident that last year’s food price spike hasn’t yielded a more persistent bout of inflation, could we see one or two of the hawks drop their opposition to cuts? We wouldn’t rule out rates going below 3%.
Crucially, corporate and household balance sheets are healthy enough to support more borrowing – a crucial difference to the post-financial crisis period. Household debt as a share of income is considerably lower than during the financial crisis, having fallen from 134% to 116% since 2022 alone. Credit to non-financial corporates was 59% of GDP as of Q3 last year, down from 70% in 2019.
Bank lending growth to corporates is picking up speed
Source: Macrobond, ING
We are already seeing signs that rate cuts are boosting bank lending. Corporate loan growth is in excess of 5%; the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey hints that demand for lending associated with investment has picked up. Consumer credit card lending is increasing noticeably as well.
So yes, a more pronounced rate-cutting cycle is an upside risk for UK growth – with three major caveats.
Firstly, it relies on faster rate cuts happening for good reasons – lower inflation – and not bad – a spike in unemployment.
Secondly, rate cuts take a long time to benefit existing homeowners – a key channel of monetary policy. Over 90% of outstanding mortgages are on fixed interest rates, the majority of which are fixed initially for 5 years. The impact of past rate hikes is still coming through; the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages has continued to rise even as Bank Rate has been cut. And it is unlikely to fall through this year. Late 2020/early 2021 was a bumper period for mortgage approvals, so five years on, we are likely to see refinancing spike. Much of that will be at significantly higher rates.
Rate cuts aren’t delivering for existing mortgage holders
Source: Macrobond, ING calculations
It helps explain why new homebuilding volumes are still down 21% from their 2022 high. The construction PMI fell off a cliff at the end of last year. Estate agents, via the RICS survey, aren’t reporting a pick-up in sales relative to the number of unsold properties on the market. We doubt this changes much in the near-term, even if the Bank of England cuts rates more aggressively.
Finally, credit to companies may be growing more quickly, but confidence is ultra-low. Perhaps as a result of uncertainty about last year’s Autumn Budget, business investment looks likely to start the year on a weak footing before hopefully picking up as the year goes on.
A savings splurge
If disposable incomes aren’t growing this year, then for there to be any increase in spending, we’re going to have to see the savings ratio come lower relative to the first half of 2025. We already saw a big jump lower in the third quarter – from 10.2% to 9.6% – and we’re assuming that drop is sustained through this year, albeit it stays relatively elevated.
Why? Well, remember the savings ratio we’re talking about here is simply the difference between aggregate incomes – the number of workers multiplied by average wages – and household spending. Another way to look at it is through actual cash in UK bank accounts, and what we find is that once adjusted for inflation, the stock of savings is below pre-Covid trends. That’s one reason we’re a bit sceptical that the savings ratio – the proportion of money people are putting away each month – will fall back significantly this year.
But if we’re wrong, this is a considerable upside risk to growth this year. For every percentage-point the savings ratio falls below 9.5% at the end of the year, we estimate 2026 annual growth will be 0.3-0.4pp higher. If it fell back to pre-Covid averages (7.5%), that implies growth of 1.6%, significantly above our 0.9% forecast.
How a lower savings ratio could boost growth
Source: Macrobond, ING estimates
Statistical luck
Something weird is going on with UK growth. Ever since 2022, the economy has grown faster in the first half of the year – particularly Q1 – than through the second. It’s a trend we weren’t seeing before the pandemic – and given the data is adjusted for seasonal patterns, it shouldn’t be happening at all.
It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason, but most likely it is because we’ve been in a period of higher inflation, and many price increases tend to be concentrated earlier in the year. Somewhere along the line, the way the data is deflated (adjusted for inflation) or seasonally adjusted isn’t properly accounting for that shift. There’s no reason to think this pattern won’t emerge again through 2026, which suggests we should get a decent recovery in growth through the early months of this year.
It also suggests we should be sceptical of any further slowdown through the latter part of 2025, even if it’s tempting to blame government policy uncertainty.
Depending on how weak Q4 of last year and how strong Q1 ultimately proves, this could artificially boost annual growth rates in 2026.
Every year since 2022, the economy has done better in the first half than the second
Q4 is the 2022-24 average (given 2025 data isn’t yet available)
Source: Macrobond, ING
An AI investment boom
America’s growth may be strong, but it’s also concentrated – in high-earning consumers, benefitting from soaring equity valuations, as well as a boom in AI-related investment.
So far, neither has been replicated in the UK. British households hold only 12% of their financial wealth in stocks, compared with 42% in comparable OECD countries. And while IT projects were a bright spot for business investment during 2025, we’re not seeing the sort of meteoric rise we’re seeing in the US. Investment in intangible assets – much of which will be software – was basically flat. The value of imported computers/semiconductors is up 25% since 2019, compared to 125% in America, giving a sense of the investment gap.
So while Britain may be leading the European pack on datacentre investment , there’s little sign that AI is boosting GDP in the sort of tangible way it is in the US. UK construction, remember, is suffering enormously.
Still, if this changes, then the lesson from American growth in 2025 is that the impact can be sizeable. It’s a wildcard for the UK’s 2026 outlook.
US AI-related imports have surged much more than in the UK
UK data combines “computers, peripherals, electronic components and boards”. US data combines “computers, peripherals & semi-conductors”
Source: Macrobond, ING
Closer EU ties
Like last year, there’s going to be renewed focus on the UK’s EU relationship through 2026. And like last year, tangible progress is likely to be limited.
That said, political ambitions appear to be growing. The ruling Labour Party is slipping in the polls, and with a majority of Brits unhappy about how Brexit has panned out, we may well see a broader push towards closer economic alignment. Formally, this year is about concluding deals on food standards, as well as emissions trading. But don’t totally rule out a much broader push to rejoin a customs union, which would remove tariff barriers and rules-of-origin requirements on traded goods.
Such measures could have a meaningful impact in the long term, but any agreement would presumably take several years. The goal from all of this, though, is more about persuading the Office for Budget Responsibility to upgrade its productivity growth assessment, reducing the pressure on the government to raise taxes again over the coming years.
Realistically, any changes are likely to be modest, as we wrote last year . But this is one to watch ahead of the Autumn Budget later in 2026 – and whether a meaningful push for closer EU ties succeeds in boosting sentiment among businesses.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
