Resume af teksten:
Forbrugernes økonomiske udsigter i Europa viser stabil lønvækst, stabile huspriser og overkommelige boliglån, men forbrugerne er fortsat tilbageholdende med at øge deres forbrug på trods af disse faktorer. Inflationsforventninger og ønsker om at spare op er på deres højeste, hvilket begrænser økonomisk vækst. For 2026 forventes det, at forbrugerne fortsat vil spare, hvilket begrænser mulighederne for både husholdninger og den bredere økonomi. I de seneste år har der været vækst i reallønningerne, især i Italien, Nederlandene, Tyskland og Spanien, mens lande som Belgien og Frankrig har oplevet langsommere vækst. Huspriserne er steget, især i Spanien, men forventes at moderere i det kommende år. Forbrugerforventningerne er negative trods positive økonomiske indikatorer, hvilket kan skyldes geopolitiske spændinger, såsom situationen i Ukraine. Selvom forbrugernes opsparingsrate er stigende, ville normalisering kunne løfte BNP med cirka 1,5%.
Fra ING:
Our outlook suggests solid wage growth, stable house prices and manageable mortgage costs for most consumers. The key question is whether they will finally spend a larger share of their income. But inflation expectations and consumers’ intentions to save are peaking, so we don’t expect that shift to happen
European consumers see 2026 as another year to keep saving, benefiting neither households nor the wider economy
A fine labour market and real wage growth
For households, 2025 marked another year of regaining purchasing power. Real wages in the eurozone grew by 2.6% on average. Differences were large, however. Countries with above-average wage growth were Italy, the Netherlands and Germany and, most notably, Spain, while Belgium and France saw much slower development of real wages. Throughout 2025, nominal wage growth has gradually slowed, while unemployment has remained at historically low levels. Looking ahead to next year, we expect unemployment to stay low, with nominal wage growth moderating further compared to this year.
Offsetting this, consumer prices are expected to rise slightly less than this year – just under 2%. The stronger euro , competition from Chinese imports and, most importantly, cheaper energy will all contribute to purchasing power growth next year. The growth in real wages will slow down versus this year, however. Should inflation undershoot – not our base case but still possible – real wages would benefit.
Strong real wage growth over the past two years
Real wage growth for eurozone 20
Source: Eurostat, ING Research calculations
Housing market looks good, but not for everyone
House price growth was solid across the eurozone in 2025 at about 5% on the back of strong wage growth and lower interest rates on new mortgages. Spain stood out here, with price growth of about 9%. Germany’s house prices increased at a very sluggish pace. For next year, we expect a more moderate increase in house prices. First, wage growth is slower, and second, mortgage rates creep up somewhat as the yield on long-term rates rises .
Throughout this year, interest rates on outstanding mortgages have come down from last year, on average. There were large differences between countries, however, with Spanish and Italian households seeing a strong decline in the average interest costs compared to last year, while for Germans, French, Belgians and Dutch the interest paid still increased. For the latter countries, we expect to see average interest rates creep up, while we expect the downtrend in Italy and Spain to end.
Support for house prices comes from our expectation that the housing shortage will persist across the continent . Our outlook is mostly favourable for current owners: broadly stable interest costs and a positive wealth effect. For first-time buyers, the picture is less encouraging, as house prices are projected to outpace wage growth. This confirms our consumer survey results, which found that 59% of consumers do not consider housing affordable in their country.
Consumers remain downbeat
Consumer confidence still stands at a low level, which is hard to explain when looking at economic growth, the jobs market and housing market. The sentiment has been linked to geopolitical uncertainty . The war in Ukraine hit the continent hard, leading to higher energy prices, increased security threats and the need to spend more on defence. Should there be an enduring peace agreement , this could lift sentiment.
We were wrong: European households savings peak continues
Household consumption did rise in 2025, but only modestly – up 1.2%, which is half the pace of real wage growth. There are noticeable differences across the continent: in Spain, household consumption increased strongly, on the back of higher real wages, lower mortgage costs and positive migration. In Italy and Germany, household consumption has been in stagnation ever since the Covid pandemic began.
Households now spend less than €0.85 of every euro earned. Apart from the pandemic period, the savings rate hasn’t been this high in the past three decades. We, like many, had expected to see a gradual reduction this year. We were wrong; the ratio increased somewhat. Levels differ between countries (France, Germany and the Netherlands are above average, Spain, Belgium and Italy below), but for all the large countries, the savings ratio is well above the 2015-19 average of 12.6%.
A lack of spending slows down the economy. A normalisation to an average level would have a first-order effect of lifting GDP by about 1.5% and some estimate a much stronger positive effect on GDP.
Finding drivers: inflation eroded wealth and households expect much more to come
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.