Resume af teksten:
PMI i eurozonen faldt fra 48,8 i april til 47,5 i maj, det laveste niveau siden 2023. Dette indikerer risici for en teknisk recession, især hvis Mellemøsten-konflikten fortsætter. Fokus er primært på inflationseffekter fra konflikten, men PMI data viser også svækket økonomisk vækst. Undersøgelsen afslører fald i produktion, nye ordrer og beskæftigelse. Virksomheder kæmper med stigende omkostninger og lav tillid blandt forbrugere og virksomheder. Efterspørgselens svækkelse gør det vanskeligt for virksomheder at overføre stigende omkostninger til forbrugerne. Energi chok fra Mellemøsten påvirker økonomien negativt, og uden regeringens støtte eller genopblomstring af tjenesterisektoren kan væksten blive yderligere hæmmet.
Fra ING:
The PMI fell from 48.8 in April to 47.5 in May, the lowest reading since 2023. Growth concerns come on top of inflation worries as the PMI flags increasing risks of a technical recession in the eurozone if the Middle East conflict persists.
While the markets’ focus is still mainly on the inflationary impact of the Middle East war, today’s eurozone PMI confirms that the growth impact is not to be overlooked. The survey indicates weakening output and falls in new orders and jobs. So an all-round bleak report for the eurozone economy in the middle of the second quarter.
Businesses are suffering from sharp input cost increases at the moment, combined with uncertainty and low confidence among corporates and consumers. This results in declining new orders in both services and manufacturing for the moment.
But because demand is weakening, it looks like businesses are going to struggle more to pass on their higher input costs to the consumer. The selling prices reported by the survey grew only marginally faster than last month. This makes this a different crisis from 2022 as it is set to dampen consumer price increases somewhat but also brings more growth concerns as corporate margins come under pressure.
As the Middle East conflict remains unresolved right now, the negative impact of the energy shock on the eurozone economy is clearly increasing. That makes this time different from the previous energy shock. Without ample government support in place and without the vibrant reopening of the service sector as lockdowns ended, like in 2022, the negative growth impact could be felt more.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
