Resume af teksten:
Centralbanker i England, Ungarn, Tjekkiet og Armenien vil næste uge mødes for at træffe beslutninger om rentepolitikken, hvor særligt Bank of England overvejer en potentiel rentesænkning. I USA forventes flere rentenedsættelser i 2026, selvom Federal Reserve allerede har varslet en yderligere nedsættelse. Det amerikanske arbejdsmarked viser svagheder med mulige jobtab. I Storbritannien ses arbejdsmarkedet kølende ned med faldende lønvækst, og Bank of England er tæt på at beslutte en rentesænkning, afhængigt af guvernør Andrew Baileys afgørende stemme. I Centraleuropa ser Polen et fald i kerneinflation, mens ungarske myndigheder opretholder en stram pengepolitik trods prisfald på visse områder. Tjekkiet og Armenien forventes at fastholde eksisterende renteniveauer, på trods af forskellige økonomiske dynamikker og inflationsændringer.
Fra ING:
The Bank of England, the National Bank of Hungary, the Czech National Bank and the Central Bank of Armenia all meet next week to decide on the direction for interest rates. Here’s what we’re expecting
All eyes on Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey as a divided committee debates a potential rate cut
THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
Rate decisions: After cutting interest rates for the third consecutive meeting on 10 December, the Federal Reserve signalled that it believes the most likely path forward is only one additional cut in 2026. The market sees the risks as being skewed towards the Fed doing more, and we agree, forecasting additional 25bp rate cuts in March and June.
Jobs data & CPI (Thur): The upcoming data flow will be influential on the market pricing with the delayed October and November jobs numbers being released on Wednesday and the delayed November consumer price inflation figures out on Thursday. The Bureau of Labour Statistics will not be publishing a MoM CPI number because the government shutdown meant it was not able to collect price data for October. It will only be publishing price levels and YoY inflation for November, and we expect the annual rate to pick up to 3.2% from 3% in September. This will be due primarily to tariff effects and higher insurance costs. Nonetheless, lower energy costs, slowing housing rents and weakening wage growth should mean the annual rate doesn’t move much higher before dropping back to the mid-2s in the second half of 2026. It is the jobs story that is the more worrying aspect, with another subdued print likely. One interesting aspect of Fed Chair Powell’s most recent press conference was his comment that Fed staffers believe that the payroll numbers are overstating job creation by up to 60,000 per month. With the consensus being a gain of 50k for November, this suggests that the economy may well be losing jobs right now, which underscores the point that the risks are oriented towards more Fed support being implemented next year.
United Kingdom (James Smith)
Jobs report (Tue): The jobs market has gradually weakened this year, led by the private sector, but more recently, the government too. This is a theme we expect to continue in 2026, given less generous real-terms increases in departmental budgets. A cooler jobs market is rapidly pushing down wage growth, which we expect to take another leg lower next week.
Inflation (Wed): Inflation is set to remain unchanged in November, but the Bank of England will want further signs that food inflation has peaked and hints beneath the surface that services inflation is improving. We expect more meaningful progress from early next year – and particularly from April onwards.
Bank of England (Thur) : A rate cut is likely, though it is a closer call than markets think it is. The committee is deeply divided and four out of nine officials are unlikely to vote for the cut. The vote will hinge solely on Governor Andrew Bailey, who has indicated he has more sympathy with the doves, who argue like us that the inflation outlook is improving.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Poland (Adam Antoniak)
Nov CPI (Mon): We expect the flash estimate of November CPI inflation to be confirmed at 2.4%YoY. The detailed data breakdown should allow for a more precise approximation of core inflation, which probably declined to 2.7-2.8%YoY from 3.0%YoY in October (official data to be released by the National Bank of Poland on Tuesday). The inflation outlook for 2026 looks more favourable than envisaged by the November central bank projection, so we still see room for about 75bp cuts in the main policy rate next year.
Nov labour market (Thu): We forecast that wage growth moderated further in November, easing pressure on services prices and core inflation. In November 2024, miners received part of the traditional end-of-year bonuses, but this did not happen this year. What is more, bonuses this year will be lower as coal mining is experiencing unfavourable financial developments. Employment in enterprises was probably unchanged in November vs. October but may print a bigger decline in YoY terms.
Nov industry (Thu): Industrial sectors in Germany and Poland have shown some signs of recovery in recent months, and we expect this to continue, but the revival remains fragile due to structural challenges, especially to the European automotive industry amid strong competition from Asia. Some Polish auto manufacturers had production breaks at the turn of October and November, which may translate into softer output in this sector of industry. Producers’ prices remain in deflation and downward pressure on the level of prices has re-emerged in recent months.
Hungary (Peter Virovacz)
Rate decision (Tue): Taking everything into account, we still can’t see any clear-cut reason for the National Bank of Hungary to ease monetary policy in December. Although the price shield measures and base effects will temporarily lower Hungarian inflation, we do not foresee any scope for a cut in the base rate in the near future. Therefore, we anticipate that the tone will be as hawkish as possible, accompanied by an added ‘look-through’ message, to prevent the market from anticipating a premature dovish shift. This message is essential, as we expect the central bank to lower its 2026 CPI forecast due to a stronger HUF, lower energy prices, and the extended and expanded price shield measures. However, an upward revision of the 2027 inflation outlook is also possible.
Czech Republic (David Havrlant)
Current account & PPI (Mon & Tue): Czech exports are doing relatively well, despite still underperforming demand from the eurozone’s main trading partners, and we expect October’s current account to have remained in solid surplus. That said, the industry is still not showing a solid pickup despite recent stabilisation. Hence, the PPI’s annual decline likely became even more pronounced in November, particularly amid severe competition against cheap imports from China.
Rate decision (Thur): A hold at the Czech National Bank meeting is expected, despite headline inflation slipping close to the target in November and core inflation easing. Nevertheless, the economy is doing well, and solid household income can keep the wheels of spending turning, so there is no need for a change unless something starts going south.
Armenia (Dmitry Dolgin)
Rate decision (Tue); We expect the Central Bank of Armenia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% on Tuesday, though an alternative, more dovish scenario cannot be ruled out. The likelihood of resuming the rate-cutting cycle has increased, as headline CPI slowed more than anticipated to 3.1% YoY in November, down from 3.7% in the previous two months. Household inflation expectations have also improved significantly. Meanwhile, the recent decline in CPI is confined to the food segment, influenced by global food prices, while core CPI has risen to 3.6% YoY. On the demand side, inflationary pressures persist, with GDP growth surpassing expectations at 6.2% YoY in the third quarter of 2025, a fiscal deficit remaining elevated at 3.6% of GDP, and lending growth outpacing funding. Therefore, we maintain an unchanged policy rate as our base scenario.
Key events next week in developed markets
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Key events in EMEA next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
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