Resume af teksten:
Japans Tankan-undersøgelse viser, at erhvervstilliden forbliver relativt stærk trods højere oliepriser og forsyningsvanskeligheder. Erhvervstilliden blandt store japanske producenter steg til 17 i første kvartal, mens den for ikke-producenter forblev uændret på 36. Fremtidsudsigterne for både fremstillings- og ikke-fremstillingssektoren faldt i forhold til fjerde kvartal 2025, men overgik stadig markedskonsensus. Indikatorer for generelt og elektrisk maskineri forbedrede sig, mens jern og stål, motorkøretøjer og basismaterialer blev forværret. Fremstillingssektorens PMI blev revideret op til 51,6, selv om produktion og nye ordreindgange faldt. Den seneste stigning i oliepriser kan øge inflationspresset. Bank of Japan vil fokusere mere på prisudviklingen. Det forventes, at BoJ hæver renten 25 basispoint i april.
Fra ING:
Japan’s Tankan Survey showed that business sentiment remains relatively firm despite higher oil prices and supply constraints. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stayed above 50. With the Bank of Japan likely placing greater emphasis on inflation, we expect an April interest rate hike
Tankan Large Manufacturer Index
16 in 4Q25
Business sentiment remains relatively firm, but outlook is cautious
Sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers rose to 17 in the first quarter (vs revised 16 in 4Q25 survey, market consensus), while non-manufacturers’ sentiment index stayed flat at 36 (vs revised 36 in 4Q25, 33 market consensus). The outlook indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing declined relative to the fourth quarter of 2025 but still beat market consensus. The outlook for general machinery and electrical machinery improved, while expectations worsened for iron and steel, motor vehicles, and basic materials. We believe the robust semiconductor cycle is driving positive sentiment in the overall manufacturing sector. Yet sentiment declined in sectors more closely tied to commodities. We believe that stronger-than-expected Tankan survey results indicate that business confidence hasn’t yet turned significantly negative.
The Manufacturing PMI delivered a similar story. It was revised up to 51.6 from its flash 51.4, even though this is below February’s 53. It has remained in expansion for three consecutive months. However, output and new orders declined, making the outlook cloudy.
Today’s Tankan showed that the recent rise in oil prices may raise inflationary pressure in the future. The output price index indicates higher prices are expected in both the short and medium terms. The Bank of Japan will pay more attention to the price component. This is in line with the BoJ’s view that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, supporting further policy normalisation. We expect the BoJ to deliver a 25 bp hike in April.
Output prices are expected to rise steadily in the medium term
Source: CEIC
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