Resume af teksten:
Verdensøkonomien støttes af AI-investeringer, robuste virksomhedsudgifter og lempelige finansielle forhold.
Europæisk erhvervstillid har overrasket positivt, mens risikoen for recession vurderes som relativt lav og fjern.
Kinas teknologitunge produktion og eksport understøttes af AI-efterspørgsel, mens den indenlandske økonomi er afdæmpet.
Inflation og renter ventes at stabilisere sig på et højere niveau end før covid-19.
Fed, ECB og Bank of Japan hævede deres styringsrenter i september.
Den amerikanske dollar ventes at svækkes, mens euroen, australske dollar og norske krone fremhæves positivt.
Aktieafkast er blevet bredere fordelt, og der peges på cykliske europæiske sektorer, finans, Japan og udvalgte vækstmarkeder.
Obligationer med attraktive realrenter, guld og udvalgte alternative investeringer fremhæves som porteføljeelementer.
Fra Julius Bär:
The global economy: Stronger outlook, lower recession risk
Economic growth continues to be supported by the AI investment cycle, resilient corporate spending, and supportive financial conditions. Initially concentrated in the US, these factors are now supporting growth globally. European business sentiment data, previously lagging behind the US and Japan, has surprised positively and is closing the gap. Receding inflationary risks and a stronger outlook for output are dispelling the stagflationary fears of early 2026.
China entered the second half of the year on a weaker footing, with an increasingly divided economy. AI-related demand supports technology-intensive manufacturing and exports, while the broader domestic economy remains subdued. Policymakers appear willing to tolerate slower growth while prioritising technological self-reliance.
The principal risks to the global economy are a policy mistake, a sharp slowdown in AI spending, and a major geopolitical shock. However, recession risk appears to be relatively low and distant.
Interest rates and inflation: Elevated but stable
Compared with the decade before Covid-19, inflation and interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels. Factors such as reshoring, defence spending, and geopolitical fragmentation are adding upward pressure to prices. However, AI-driven productivity gains could become important in offsetting this pressure over time. Therefore, rather than a return to ultra-low inflation, we expect somewhat higher but more stable inflation and interest rate levels ahead.
In September, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased their policy rates against a challenging inflationary backdrop. We expect the Fed to raise rates once more at its next meeting in October and then to start cutting rates in mid-2027. In Europe, neither the ECB nor the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to make changes to their policy rates. Meanwhile, solid growth and supportive fiscal policy should allow the BoJ to raise rates further.
Where to invest for the rest of 2026? Our key calls
1. Currencies: Expect a softer USD
In this environment, the fading USD’s rate advantage should support the EUR/USD currency pair. The AUD and the NOK remain the highest-yielding currencies in developed markets, arguing for a bullish outlook, while the SNB’s zero-rate policy seals the rate disadvantage, enabling the pocket of weakness to continue. In emerging markets, Latin American currencies remain the carry champions.
2. Equities: Breadth is back
Equity returns have started to broaden after an unusually concentrated first half of 2026. Improving earnings breadth supports this trend, strengthening the case for diversification beyond AI while justifying our constructive stance on equities into year end. In Europe, we favour cyclical sectors exposed to higher investment spending, financials thanks to their strong earnings momentum, and Switzerland for its diversification benefits. In information technology, we remain constructive on the structural AI theme and prefer semiconductors and selected software companies over hardware.
Finally, we continue to overweight emerging markets, with a selective approach to Asia. We like Japan due to its AI leadership and corporate reforms and Singapore for its defensiveness and reform initiatives, and we see longer-term potential in China due to its under-owned AI opportunity and in India thanks to its domestic resilience.
3. Fixed income: Higher yields, better opportunities
Attractive real yields continue to support fixed income as a core portfolio anchor into year end. We favour duration exposure through investment-grade corporate bonds in the 5-to-10-year segment while remaining disciplined on credit risk. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) remain a useful complement if inflation proves to be stickier than expected.
Emerging market debt is still a preferred allocation, as it offers attractive income and diversification benefits. AI-driven debt issuance by hyperscalers is creating opportunities rather than being a threat to credit spreads.
4. Precious metals: Structurally supported
Gold remains an important portfolio diversifier. Central bank demand continues to offer strong structural support, while geopolitical uncertainty and high public debt levels also remain supportive of the asset class. Although prices may remain volatile in the short term, we maintain our constructive stance on gold. In contrast, silver is still feeling the after-effects of a speculation-fuelled frenzy and is set to face softer industrial demand.
5. Alternative investments: Alpha via execution excellence
Private markets face the challenge of higher rates, making manager selection crucial. We favour value-creating private equity, European direct lending, infrastructure linked to structural growth and inflation resilience, and low-volatility multi-strategy hedge funds that enhance diversification amid rising market dispersion and volatility.
Frequently asked questions
What to expect from the new Fed leadership?
The key change is likely to concern its communication style. The Fed appears comfortable providing less forward guidance and allowing markets to react more directly to incoming data. This means that investors may need to get used to higher volatility around inflation and employment releases, while the bar for a ‘Fed put’, i.e. the central bank’s propping-up of markets in case of a downturn, remains high.
How should investors position portfolios amid geopolitical fragmentation and trade uncertainty?
Rather than trying to predict every geopolitical event, investors should focus on the long-term beneficiaries of this environment. Areas such as AI, infrastructure, cybersecurity, healthcare, and financials continue to look attractive. We also think that diversification across regions remains important, particularly in Japan, other parts of Asia, and selected European markets.
Kilde: Julius Bär, https://your.juliusbaer.com/insights/c/s-YWLtg6T1KeImiyTtQxfwhR3UzZ4bSsyIyYdXiDDdOQ2WEvxjl5Ss6Q5VbPJ9jiOg
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