Resume af teksten:
I denne uge er politiske magtspil flyttet hjem fra Davos med store internationale bevægelser som distraktion. I USA skaber immigration og en potentiel nedlukning risici for økonomien, mens Kina afprioriterer markeder til fordel for politik, og Japan sender blandede signaler med sin pengepolitik. Reelle aktiver blomstrer, hvor særlig guld og sølv oplever prisstigninger på grund af politisk usikkerhed. USA viser overraskende robust økonomisk vækst i 2026, hvilket resulterer i justerede BNP-forventninger. På den anden side fortsætter sølv med at stige, uanset markedstendenser og får en slags uforudsigelig karakter, kaldet den ‘Trump af alle handler’. Investorer rådes til at holde øje med centralbankens love og inddrage aktieerhvervelser baseret på individuelle præstationer fremfor indekser.
Fra Julius Bär:
This week, the Davos stage is gone, but the power games have simply moved home. In the US, protests over immigration policy now sit alongside a more tangible risk: slower growth due to labour supply constraints and the political backlash of a partial shutdown. In China, another leadership purge signals that politics still trumps markets – even as policymakers try to offset the demographic implosion and a reduced dependence on foreign trade with what looks increasingly like a government-sponsored, structural equity bull market.
As for Japan, monetary policy normalisation is sending some wobbly signals into global financial markets. In the UK, the Labour Party’s internal blocking of leadership ambitions is a reminder that even stable democracies are busy managing their own audiences.
Real assets rally as politics distract
That domestic focus matters because some international, headline-grabbing moves feel designed to distract. Investors, however, still have to price the consequences. Gold blasting through USD 5,000 is the cleanest barometer: when politics turns noisy, portfolios reach for assets that cannot be printed at will. Oil, by contrast, is behaving – Iran risk is offset by Venezuelan barrels and OPEC+’s steady-hand messaging. Meanwhile, silver’s relentless rise continues, pushing prices above the USD 100-per-ounce threshold. Flows dominate fundamentals, and silver has become the ‘Trump of all trades’, simply doing what it wants.
The broader environment for real assets is also being shaped by stronger undercurrents in the world’s largest economy. Indeed, beneath the surface turbulence of political drama lies a surprisingly robust US growth story – one that continues to defy pessimistic forecasts and reshape expectations for 2026.
US growth: Hardly any signs of weakening
US economic data has largely exceeded expectations so far in 2026, prompting us to revise our cautious growth outlook for the year upwards. The better-than-expected growth backdrop provides another argument for the Fed, who paused its monetary easing this week. Widely divergent opinions on monetary policy within the FOMC and political pressure from outside were further arguments in favour of a pause. We expect labour market weakness to persist in 2026 and inflation to ease, enabling the Fed to lower the Fed funds target rate by a further 50bps in the first half of 2026.
So far, the headwinds facing consumers – in the form of import tariffs, which act as a consumption tax and weigh on consumer sentiment, cuts in entitlement spending such as healthcare, and labour growth that has come to a standstill – have had less of a negative impact on private consumption than expected. US consumers continue to reduce their savings, and wealthier households, who can enjoy growing wealth due to rising stock markets and housing prices, continue to drive consumption growth.
At the same time, easier financial conditions create a positive impulse for growth in the coming years and help to keep recession risks low for the US. We expect private housing investment to increase during 2026, offsetting growth headwinds from weaker labour and consumption growth. We upgrade our US GDP forecasts to 2.6% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, up from 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The shift in the composition of growth from consumption and labour to investment reduces inflationary risk, and we continue to expect inflation to slow to 2.6% in 2026.
Why is silver the ‘Trump of all trades’ right now?
The triple-digit threshold has been breached and silver’s relentless rise continues. Screening the usual suspects, the US dollar and US bond yields are lower, but the magnitude of these moves does not explain silver’s +20% price performance since the start of last week. Silver seems to have become the ‘Trump of all trades’. It simply does what it wants – or what market participants want – in this case, targeting triple digits.
In our view, prices no longer reflect the value of the metal, but rather the willingness to pay of those hoarding and herding in the market. Given the small size of the silver market, it does not take much money to move prices. We still see flows, rather than fundamentals, firmly in the driving seat. There is increasing interest in silver across emerging economies, with Turkey being a case in point. How long can this continue, and how high can prices rise? Chinese traders will be heading for the Lunar New Year holidays by mid-February, with exchanges closed for two weeks. This could become an important test for silver, showing how much of a driver the traders have been.
Until then, market momentum should stay strong. Round numbers should be the next targets, meaning that technical analysis is much better suited to assessing the market than fundamental analysis. There is no fundamental factor preventing prices from rising to USD 125 or USD 150 per ounce. While demand destruction will eventually occur, it does not happen immediately. Industrial silver users will search for alternatives – as already announced by Chinese solar module makers – while price-sensitive jewellery buyers will stay away from the stores.
Those riding this record run should be aware that, at some point, it will be self-defeating. The only fundamental factor justifying today’s lofty price levels is a longer-lasting debasement of the US dollar and a broader-based loss of trust in the greenback as the world’s reserve currency. While we are bearish on the US dollar, such scenarios still seem unlikely.
What should investors keep in mind?
Amid these big headlines on silver and US growth, investors should keep an eye on central bank movements and earnings this week. The Fed held interest rates on Wednesday January 28, due to solid activity data, despite fierce political pressure to cut; guidance will matter as much as rates. Canada and Brazil also chose to hold, with more speakers expected across the ECB orbit. Then comes the real market mover: earnings. Early prints have been solid, guidance seasonally cautious, and mega-cap technology looks likely to set the tone. Listen to Julius Baer’s latest Moving Markets podcast episode on earnings here .
Our positioning stays with real assets – gold – and with claims on real assets, i.e. equities. However, record-low single-stock correlations mean that stock-picking, not index hugging, is the edge.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
