Fra Danske Bank:
Story of the week (FX): As the energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially frozen (barring a handful of Iranian and Chinese tankers), we continue to see risks skewed towards lower EUR/USD, for several reasons. Terms-of-trade, wider real interest rate spreads and tighter global financial conditions all support broad USD FX. We continue to like our tactical short EUR/USD spot recommendation. For EUR-based investors hedging USD-denominated assets, we recommend extending maturing FX forwards to 3-5Y, or alternatively considering 3M risk reversals, which benefit from the sharply lower option skew.
Macro : The administration announced two series of Section 301 tariff investigations, which will replace the Section 122 tariff expiring on 24 July. Our base assumption is that the administration will target an average trade-weighted tariff rate around 15%, but completely replacing the old IEEPA rates will not be straightforward. IEEPA refunds will likely begin on 20 April.
FX : Even though the nominal 2Y USD-EUR interest rate spread has narrowed in favour of EUR, the real rate spread has actually widened in favour of USD. As many times before, it is the latter that matters most for the spot FX rate.
STIR : We do not think the recent shock to energy prices will alter much for the Fed when it comes to the outlook for interest rates, i.e., this is not 2022; spillover to inflation should be much smaller and temporary and the market will likely continue to discount a chance of a couple of cuts this year.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
