Resume af teksten:
De amerikanske aktiemarkeder faldt kraftigt, med S&P 500 ned 4,4 procent og Nasdaq ned 5,5 procent.
Nvidia faldt 9 procent, Broadcom 10 procent og AMD mere end 17 procent.
SpaceX faldt 9 procent, mens Tesla faldt næsten 11 procent.
I Asien faldt Nikkei 6 procent og Kospi 5 procent fredag morgen.
Dollaren blev styrket over for andre valutaer.
Mere end en halv million franskmænd deltog i en generalstrejke om studieforhold, løn og velfærd.
Markedet forventer omkring 50.000 nye amerikanske job i oktober og en arbejdsløshed på 4,2 procent.
Norges Bank fastholdt styringsrenten på 4,50 procent.
Svenske ejerlejlighedspriser steg 1,9 procent i oktober, mens villaer faldt 0,6 procent.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
There were dramatic stock market falls in the US yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling 4.4% and the Nasdaq plummeting 5.5% in the worst daily decline since “Liberation Day” last year. After the initial relief rally on Wednesday that was driven by hopes that the Democrats’ election victory will lead to a quick end to the Iran war, the market yesterday instead went “all in” on concerns that the AI rollout will now be halted as there is a compact resistance among Democrats to building more data centers. Although all AI companies were affected, it was toughest for the chipmakers. Nvidia ended at -9%, Broadcom at -10% and AMD fell more than 17%. AI companies outside the stock market are also feeling the brunt of the turmoil and for Anthropic, which is planning to start its IPO, the timing could hardly have been worse. The Musk companies also continued to suffer from the political hangover and SpaceX fell 9% while Tesla plummeted by almost 11%.
In Asia, the sharp stock market falls continue this morning with the Nikkei at -6% and the Kospi at -5%. Ahead of the opening here at home, stock market futures still point to a calmer end to the week and it is only a percent down in Europe and actually a little up in the US. Given the drama on the stock exchanges, it has still been surprisingly calm in the currency markets, even though the dollar has strengthened a against other currencies in a classic risk-off move.
Among other news , we note that over half a million French people participated in yesterday’s general strike for better study conditions, higher wages and a better welfare. Hmm, it will probably be difficult to get those demands to go together with the fiscal situation…
Focus on Payrolls and Sölvesborg. Although the stock market panic and the aftermath of the election will continue to be in focus today, we will also get jobs numbers from the US, as usual on the first Friday of a new month. Last month was weak and although the signals from the labor market are mixed, the market expects a figure around 50k in October and a stable unemployment rate of 4.2%. Such an outcome would also be well in line with the Fed’s view of the situation. For Sweden, all eyes are now on the town of Sölvesborg, where Sd party leader Jimmie Åkesson will hold a press conference at lunchtime on the government issue.
Nordic key stories
Yesterday Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, as widely expected. The Committee concludes that economic developments and inflation prospects appear to be broadly as envisaged. Given limited new data released since September, it is unsurprising that the Committee wants to await more input before reassessing its policy stance. The guidance from September was thus reiterated: “…the outlook implies that it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time. The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if warranted by the inflation outlook”. We still believe the policy rate has peaked, although risks remain skewed to the upside.
Swedish house prices in October. This morning, new data from Mäklarstatistik showed prices for tenant-owned apartments rose by 1.9% (5.8% y/y), while detached houses fell by 0.6% (4.2% y/y).
Reading today. Over the past week, we have published updated macro forecasts for different countries under the heading Nordic Outlook Update. Last out is Sweden, which will be published on SEB’s research page during the day.
Have a great Friday.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83416
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