Resume af teksten:
Bank of Japan har fastholdt renter uændrede på 1%, advarer om øget inflationsrisici. Data viser stigning i Tokyo core-inflation til 2,0%. Yen-interventioner ser ud til at have fundet sted i samarbejde med USA. I Kina falder PMI i fremstilling og service til kontraherende niveauer. Amerikanske og europæiske obligationsrenter faldt efter rentebeslutning fra Federal Reserve. Microsoft og Amazon leverer stærke resultater, mens Apple skuffer. Asiatiske aktiemarkeder stiger, især Sydkoreas Kospi. Dollaren svækket mod euro, mens oliepriserne falder. Bank of England holder renter uændret. Lave vandniveauer i Rhinen kan påvirke transport og priser. Amerikansk økonomi viser blandede signaler i vækst, mens europæisk inflation er i fokus. Svensk økonomi viser styrketegn med positive indikatorer.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 1% this morning , as expected, by a vote of 8-1. Data this morning shows that core inflation in the Tokyo area (excluding fresh food and energy) rose for the second consecutive month, from 1.9% to 2.0%, and the BoJ warns in its announcement of increased inflation risks, pointing to the need for further tightening. The rate decision was apparently preceded by new interventions yesterday to strengthen the yen, presumably in cooperation with the United States. Our Asia strategist, Eugenia Victorino, sees a risk that the yen will fall back if it is not supported by further rate hikes and the currency is now trading again above 160 against the USD.
In China, the PMI in both manufacturing and services fell more than expected in July and in both cases are now back at somewhat contractionary levels (49.2 and 49.0 respectively).
Stock markets recovered after Wednesday’s Fed and AI-driven decline, and US and European bond yields fell slightly after the sharp curve steepening in the US in connection with the Fed’s interest rate announcement. Tech reports continue to dominate equity markets. Yesterday’s rise was largely driven by a strong rise for Microsoft (+16%) after unexpectedly high growth in the company’s cloud business. After yesterday’s close in the US, we have received better-than-expected numbers from Amazon, whose stock rose by more than 9%, while the market reacted with disappointment to Apple’s report. Asian stock markets are mostly higher and with particularly large gains in South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi index, which rose by as much as 17%! Stock market futures point to continued gains in both the US and Europe today. Antrophic announces today that the company’s AI model Claude unauthorizedly hacked external organizations during tests, which follows similar news last week from OpenAI. The information underlines the risks of the rapid development, but is probably also an expression of the continued competition between companies in terms of leading AI development.
The dollar weakened further with EUR/USD above 1.15, driven by the large movements in the Japanese yen. Oil prices traded back below USD 90 a barrel and have continued to fall further during the night. According to President Trump, the United States has reached an agreement between Israel and Hamas in which Hamas agrees to be disarmed, which would open the way for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. As always in these matters, the agreement should probably be interpreted with some caution before all the details are finalized.
As expected, a divided Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% yesterday, with three members voting in favour of a hike (compared to previously two), but the impression of the announcement was still somewhat soft and supports our view of an unchanged BoE rate for the rest of the year. Read more here .
Low water levels in the Rhine. The important German river for transport has been hit by critically low water levels as a result of the summer’s warm weather. This increases the risks for transports of important goods such as energy in an already strained situation and risks putting further upward pressure on prices. At Kaub, a critical bottleneck for waterborne transport, water levels are expected to reach only 25 centimetres today. Read more here .
Yesterday’s GDP reports showed an unexpectedly resilient European economy in the second quarter but lower-than-expected growth in the US. However, underlying growth in the US, mainly consumption, surprised on the upside. Core PCE inflation , which is so far the Fed’s key variable, meanwhile rose a little less than expected by consensus, easing the pressure for a hike a bit. Read more in our comments here and here .
Today’s calendar is topped by European inflation. We and consensus expect HICP inflation to retreat higher in July in the wake of rising energy prices, while we are slightly above the consensus for core inflation. Going forward, we see increased risks of spillover effects from high energy prices. Yesterday’s country CPI was mixed; higher than expected in Spain but lower core CPI in Germany.
Nordic key stories
Swedish signs of strength. Yesterday’s data provided further support for our, compared to other forecasters’, more positive views on GDP. The NIER economic sentiment indicator is now clearly above normal levels, and household mood is also finally starting to show signs of a clearer recovery. Read more here .
The krona remains just below 11.00 against the euro after yesterday’s strengthening.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79231
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