Resume af teksten:
Amerikanske aktier faldt mandag, med Nasdaq ned 1,1 pct. og S&P 500 ned 0,5 pct.
Oliepriserne faldt næsten 8 pct., og Brent handles omkring 105 dollar pr. tønde.
USA gennemførte et angreb på den iranske ø Qeshm, mens der fortsat er meldinger om mulige forhandlinger mellem USA og Iran.
Russiske og ukrainske delegationer skal mødes i Abu Dhabi 10.-11. november med amerikansk mægling.
Australiens centralbank hævede renten til 4,85 pct., den femte renteforhøjelse i år.
USA afholder midtvejsvalg i dag, hvor alle 435 pladser i Repræsentanternes Hus og 35 senatspladser er på valg.
Demokraterne er favoritter til at få kontrol over begge Kongressens kamre ifølge bettingmarkeder.
Sveriges parlament stemmer i dag om Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist som statsminister for en centristisk koalition.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
After a positive start, US equities turned lower and closed in negative territory yesterday (Nasdaq -1.1% and S&P 500 -0.5%). A sharp fall in oil prices (see below) failed to offset the decline, which was driven by concerns about the tech sector. The dollar weakened against the euro, while US long-term yields edged lower. After the close, Apple reported higher-than-expected third-quarter earnings of USD 2.10 per share, while revenue from China disappointed.
Oil prices fell sharply , by almost 8%, on hopes of negotiations following reports that Iran’s supreme leader had opened the door to indirect talks with the US. Brent is now trading at around USD 105 per barrel. For an analysis of oil prices, read more here . Reports of possible US strikes after the midterm elections continue to circulate, but Trump has also signalled that he wants to give diplomacy more time. Meanwhile, the US carried out a strike on the Iranian island of Qeshm yesterday, showing that the conflict is far from resolved.
Russian and Ukrainian delegations are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11 to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine. The US will mediate between the two countries. According to US envoy Witkoff, the talks will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian efforts, among other issues.
Australia’s central bank, the RBA, raised its policy rate as expected this morning for the fifth time this year, to 4.85%, to curb inflation. Asian equities have mostly declined. Japanese markets are closed today. Equity futures point to somewhat mixed openings in the US and declines in Europe.
The US goes to the polls in the midterm elections today . All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are at stake. The Democrats are favourites to take control of both chambers of Congress. Betting markets put the probability of a Democratic victory at 96% in the House and 74% in the Senate. The outcome could be known by Wednesday morning, Swedish time. If the result is close, counting could take another day or more.
Yesterday, the US ISM manufacturing index showed stronger-than-expected sentiment in October. Today also brings the JOLTS labour market survey for September. Demand for labour has softened, but without any clear increase in voluntary resignations. This is consistent with a labour market in which companies are cautious about hiring but retain existing staff.
Today, our Nordic Outlook Update series turns to the three Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – as well as Finland. Through Tuesday, November 10, we are publishing our forecasts and macroeconomic views for individual countries and regions on our Research website .
Nordic key stories
Another vote on a new Swedish prime minister. Today, parliament votes on Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist as prime minister of a centrist coalition comprising the Centre Party, Social Democrats, Liberals, Christian Democrats and Greens. Her nomination is expected to be rejected, and negotiations on forming a new government appear to be progressing slowly.
Swedish wage increases of 3.9% under a one-year agreement are being demanded by Sweden’s industrial trade unions. The unions are also seeking provisions for shorter working hours. Past experience suggests that they could secure about 75% of their initial wage demands, equivalent to around 3%. Any wage drift would come on top of this. However, both the economy and the labour market are undergoing major changes that could affect the final outcome.
Reading recommendation : Our Norway 360 provides you with a quick and broad overview of Norwegian macro, rates and FX.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83098
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