Resume af teksten:
Markedet fokuserer på US-Iran konflikten og risikoen for højere inflation og renter. Oliepriserne steg kraftigt efter Irans krav til USA om krigsskadeerstatning og ophævelse af blokaden af iranske skibe. USA’s energidepartement rapporterede, at de amerikanske strategiske oliereserver er på det laveste niveau siden 1983. Yen svækkedes mod dollaren, på trods af amerikansk-japansk intervention for at styrke valutaen. I går faldt aktiemarkederne i USA, mens det europæiske Euro Stoxx 50 steg. Bank of Australia fastholdt renten på 4,35%. Norges Bank forventes ikke at ændre renten torsdag, men en stigning kan komme i september. Sveriges National Institute of Economic Research offentliggør en opdateret økonomisk prognose i dag.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The market continues to focus on the US-Iran conflict and the risk of higher inflation and interest rates. Oil prices took a big leap yesterday after Iran said that the United States must meet several tough demands before the strait can open, including war reparations to Iran and an end to the blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, on the other hand, made demands on Iran, such as compensation for people killed or injured because of Iran. The back and forth with demands shows once again how far the parties are apart. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy said yesterday that the U.S. strategic oil reserves fell to the lowest level since 1983 last week.
Worth noting is yesterday’s weakening of the yen against the dollar, despite the joint US and Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen. Almost half of the reinforcement that followed the intervention has now been erased. For a more lasting appreciation of the yen, narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and Japan is needed. If Japanese investors start to return capital to the domestic bond market, we could see an even clearer appreciation. Whether the Fed’s policy rate has peaked or not is an open question. Cleveland Fed Governor Beth Hammack said yesterday that more rate hikes may be needed to reduce inflation to 2%, but she did not want to speculate on how many. Hammack was one of three members who advocated an increase at the July announcement.
Stock markets in the US fell yesterday (S&P 500 -0.1% and Nasdaq -0.3%), while the broad European benchmark index Euro Stoxx 50 rose slightly (+0.2%). Yesterday, it was announced that chipmaker Nvidia has partnered with major asset managers to secure $500 billion in funding to develop AI infrastructure. Japanese markets are closed today. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong are down overnight. Futures indicate positive openings in the US and small movements in Europe today. As expected, the Bank of Australia (RBA) left its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35% this morning.
Summer 2026 in retrospect . My colleagues Malte and Jens summarize the key economic news during the summer. Several of the spring’s major themes—such as geopolitical uncertainty, volatile energy prices, political turbulence, and resilient markets—continued to dominate throughout the vacation.
Nordic key stories
Unchanged interest rate from Norges Bank on Thursday . In June, the central bank signaled that a hike was likely at one of the upcoming meetings. However, inflation has surprised on the downside in June and July (read more here ), and given the high inflation uncertainty, we believe it is too early for Norges Bank to deliver an interest rate hike this Thursday. According to our forecast, the interest rate will be raised in September (read more here ).
New Swedish economic update . The National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) publishes an updated forecast today. Yesterday’s data on output in the business sector, which can be volatile, showed that the strong preliminary GDP outcome for the second quarter may be revised upward. Tomorrow, household consumption will be published, which will be important for GDP growth.
If you want to get a quick and broad overview of the Swedish macroeconomy, interest rates and foreign exchange market, we published a Sweden 360 yesterday.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79543
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
