Resume af teksten:
De amerikanske aktiemarkeder lukkede næsten uændret før Nvidias kvartalsregnskab.
Nvidia overgik forventningerne, og aktien steg omkring 5 procent i eftermarkedet.
Teknologiaktier steg i Asien, herunder KOSPI med 1,9 procent og Shenzhen med 1,4 procent.
Futures for europæiske og amerikanske aktier steg før åbning.
Sydkoreas centralbank hævede styringsrenten til 3,0 procent fra 2,75 procent.
Amerikanske renter steg svagt efter nye statistiktal, herunder PCE-inflation.
EUR/USD faldt lidt, mens den svenske krone var den svageste blandt G10-valutaerne.
Oliepriserne faldt for tredje dag i træk før Qatars besøg i Iran.
Norsk fastlands-BNP ventes at være vokset 0,4 procent i andet kvartal ifølge Norges Bank.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The US stock markets closed almost unchanged pending Nvidia’s quarterly report (S&P 500 0.0 percent, Nasdaq -0.1 percent). Nvidia once again topped high expectations, and the stock rose about 5 percent in after-hours trading. This has had a positive ripple effect this morning for Asian technology stocks and stock exchanges with high technology weight, including Taiwan and South Korea (KOSPI +1.9 percent) and China (Shenzhen +1.4 percent). European and US stock market futures are also rising ahead of today’s opening. As expected, Korea’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 3.0 percent from 2.75 percent. US yields rose slightly yesterday after a series of statistical outcomes, with PCE inflation – which remains well above the Fed’s target – having the greatest impact. The EUR/USD fell slightly, which put further pressure on the krona, which already started the day weakly (more below). Oil prices fell for the third day in a row ahead of Qatar’s visit to Iran, in a new attempt to get the US and Iran to resume peace talks (more on the conflict from Erik Meyersson here ).
Today’s macro agenda includes European data this morning, with Norwegian GDP for the second quarter in focus. In Sweden, the trade balance and household borrowing will be published in the morning, and then the Minister of Finance will present the economic conditions for the 2027 budget at 15.00. During the afternoon, American statistics will also follow, but of limited significance. Following Nvidia’s report, the market’s focus is now on the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, which begins today. However, tomorrow’s speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is the main event.
Nordic key stories
EUR/SEK at annual highs. The krona yesterday was the weakest of all G10 currencies. Against the EUR, it closed weakest during the year, and for us FX nerds, it was even weaker intraday. The drop started already in the morning – but was probably more flow-driven than by the Swedish PPI data, which usually does not affect that much – and intensified in the afternoon as expectations of Fed hikes increased after the data releases. As we wrote about in Ögat last week and talked about in Ögat Live (both in Swedish), the krona has mainly been affected by two driving forces during the summer: (1) the difference in interest rates, which is a negative driver for the krona, and (2) expectations of interest rate hikes from the Fed as long as they were escalated was a positive driving force. That the turnaround in expectations for the Fed thus leaves an impression on the krona is not surprising, but also gives even greater importance to the upcoming speech by Fed Governor Warsh tomorrow alongside the employment data (NFP) next Friday.
Slightly higher Norwegian growth in Q2? Mainland GDP grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter, weaker than expected, but the outcome was weighed down by temporary factors. Postponed electric car purchases after the end of 2025 and a sharp fall in hydropower production dampened growth. Adjusted for this, mainland GDP increased by 0.4 per cent, in line with Norges Bank’s forecast. Ahead of the second quarter, production data points to a less positive contribution from industry and mining, a neutral effect from electricity production and continued headwinds from the construction sector. At the same time, the demand picture is mixed. Norges Bank forecasts growth in mainland GDP of 0.4 per cent, which is also close to market expectations. Our forecast is slightly lower, 0.3 percent.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80247
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