Resume af teksten:
US-børserne lukkede i går med stigninger; S&P 500 steg 0,7% og Nasdaq 0,8%, begge på grund af moderat amerikansk inflation, som mindsker rentestigningsrisikoen. Amerikanske statsobligationer blev solgt med høje renter, da investorer kræver højere afkast grundet USAs voksende budgetunderskud. Japan og Sydkorea oplever børsstigninger, mens Hongkong falder; europæiske futures viser stigninger. USA offentliggør snart vigtige forbrugsdata. ECB forventes at hæve renten med 25 basispunkter i september. Norges Bank har holdt renten uændret, men kommende beslutninger afhænger af inflationsdata. SEB forventer Riksbanken hæver renten op til to gange inden årets slutning.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The US stock markets were cheerful yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at +0.7%, which was also a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq closing at +0.8%. The gains were driven by the news of moderate US inflation and thus reduced risk of interest rate hikes. However, this does not mean that it is cheap to borrow. Yesterday, the US Treasury auctioned new 30-year bonds and they were forced to pay an interest rate of 5.216%. It is the most expensive 30-year auction for the state since 2001. Wednesday’s auction of 10-year-olds was the most expensive since 2007. While there was decent demand, it is clear that investors are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the growing US budget deficits and demanding compensation in the form of higher returns. The situation is not made easier by the fact that competition for capital is increasing both internationally and at home. In many countries, not least in Europe, states need to borrow a lot of money in the coming years for a rapid upgrade of the defense, while the American tech companies need lots of capital for the expansion of AI.
Among other news , we note that Trump is imposing 100 percent tariffs on Chinese drones to protect American drone production, which is considered to be a national security interest. OpenAI is said to be on track to double its annual revenue compared to the end of last year to $40bn.
In Asia , the stock markets are mixed today. Japan stands at +0.4%, South Korea at +1.8% while Hong Kong is down 0.9%. Ahead of the opening here at home, European stock market futures are pointing higher, while the American futures are close to zero. There have been only small movements in the fixed income and foreign exchange markets during the night.
Thin statistics agenda. We have no new Swedish or European statistics of interest today, but from the US comes some interesting consumer data in the form of retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence. Like the rest of the economy, US household consumption has shown great resilience despite low consumer confidence and high petrol prices. This can partly be explained by money from last year’s tax cuts, but that support is starting to wane now. Finally, we are also keeping an eye on a press conference from the government at 11.30 a.m. where measures for increased efficiency in government activities will be presented.
SEB on the ECB: With less than a month to go until the next ECB announcement, we have revised our policy rate forecast and now expect a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate in September to 2.50%. The fact that the conflict in the Middle East has dragged on and continues to affect energy prices is one factor, but there are also other things that speak in favor of an interest rate hike. Core inflation is still too high, as a result of high service prices. At the same time, the ECB has its own inflation forecast that is clearly above the 2 percent target, which suggests another hike. After September, the ECB’s actions are more uncertain and we will return to this in the next Nordic Outlook on 25 August.
Nordic key stories
First Riksbank hike in time for Christmas. According to SEB’s survey of large Swedish fixed income investors, no one believes in a hike in August and most believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged in September as well. In December, however, there is a fairly large majority who believe in a higher interest rate and some believe that the Riksbank has had time to raise twice (more here ).
Inflation concerns remain. Norges Bank yesterday decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as widely expected. The Committee pointed to surprisingly low inflation during summer but emphasized that inflation is still too high and that the underlying drivers of inflation appear to be little changed. The Committee thus highlighted that it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially and signaled that “it may thus still become necessary to raise the policy rate”. A September hike will be highly data dependent but for now we stick with our call for a final rate hike to 4.50% (more here ).
Have a great Friday
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79742
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