Resume af teksten:
USA’s toårige rente steg omkring 20 basispoint efter høje inflationsdata og høgeagtige udtalelser.
Markedet indregner nu fuldt ud en renteforhøjelse på 25 basispoint i december.
Kerneinflationen i USA var 2,8 procent år for år, mens tremånedersraten var tæt på 4 procent.
S&P 500 faldt 0,4 procent, Nasdaq faldt 0,7 procent, og Nvidia faldt 5,5 procent.
Brent-olie handles omkring 92 dollar pr. tønde, mens nye angreb på skibe fastholder en del af risikopræmien.
USA, Ukraine og Rusland fortsatte fredsforhandlinger i Abu Dhabi, men er fortsat langt fra hinanden om territorium og sikkerhedsgarantier.
Norsk kerneinflation faldt til 2,7 procent i oktober, blandt andet på grund af lavere fødevarepriser og billigere importvarer.
Svenske centralbankreferater viste større bekymring for inflationsrisici, men vurderingen er fortsat uændret rente i december og en sidste forhøjelse i marts.
Kristersson har fået frist til 17. november til at fremlægge grundlag for en regering.
Fra SEB:
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Global key stories
US rates set the tone yesterday after hawkish comments and a CPI print above consensus. The US 2-year yield rose by around 20bp, and the market is now fully pricing a 25bp hike in December, with a 15% probability of a double hike. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and Nasdaq 0.7%, while Nvidia dropped a further 5.5%. European equities closed higher, with the Eurostoxx 50 up 0.6% and the OMXS30 up 0.5%. Oil prices have been weighed down by hopes that the war with Iran is drawing to a close, but new attacks on ships are keeping part of the risk premium in place, and Brent is trading around USD 92 per barrel. Asia is mixed, with the Nikkei heading for a third day of gains while Hong Kong is lower.
Third straight month of surprisingly high US core inflation. The surprise was small but broad: services, rents and goods all rose more than the market had expected. Core inflation came in at 2.8% y/y, and the annualised rate over the past three months was close to 4%, a trend pointing slightly up rather than down. Together with Waller’s hawkish comment about a double hike and Friday’s strong jobs report, this strengthens our forecast of a hike in December.
Abu Dhabi peace talks enter their second day. The US, Ukraine and Russia met yesterday in Abu Dhabi for their first peace talks since February. The US side described the first day as “very productive”. However, the parties remain far apart on territory and security guarantees, and expectations of a breakthrough are low.
Norwegian core inflation in line with Norges Bank. CPI-ATE fell to 2.7% in October, one tenth below our forecast. Lower food prices and cheaper imported goods both contributed, which may be a sign that the stronger krone has started to feed through to prices. Higher rents in October are an upside risk, as they carry a large weight in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation picture supports our view that inflation will come in lower than Norges Bank expects.
In today’s Ögat , we sum up the key conclusions from our recently published Nordic Outlook. We also look at the US midterm elections, where the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong gains are putting pressure not only on Trump and the Republicans but also on oil prices and AI investment.
Nordic key stories
More hawkish minutes than expected. The minutes from last week’s rate hike painted a tighter picture than both the press release and the press conference. Per Jansson and Göran Hjelm in particular highlighted upside risks to inflation from energy prices and stronger growth. Jansson and Anna Seim both left the door open to a hike as early as December, while Governor Erik Thedéen expects hikes in line with the September path, i.e. roughly over the coming six months. However, the low October inflation print, a stronger krona and lower energy prices suggest there is no rush. We stick to our view that the rate will be left unchanged in December and raised one last time in March.
Mixed Swedish data. Yesterday’s production figures showed private-sector output falling 0.5% in September, which was expected after several consecutive months of gains. We remain positive on Swedish growth and expect GDP to grow by 3.0% this year, but 2027 will bring headwinds from more expensive energy, rising mortgage rates and the phase-out of support measures, which is likely to dampen consumption. Household consumption data at 08:00 today will give further signals on the state of the Swedish economy.
Kristersson given until 17 November. The Speaker has extended the exploratory mandate, and Kristersson will now present a basis for a government next Tuesday. Everything hinges on whether he can present a credible plan to bring the Centre Party on board. Without a new government in place tomorrow, the caretaker government will present a budget that, by convention, should be neutral and pared back.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/83591
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